🏎️ NASCAR Odds & Betting Favorites at COTA 2026: Will SVG Add Another Road Course Win?
After Tyler Reddick won the first two superspeedway races of the NASCAR Cup Series season, there's a different driver atop the latest NASCAR odds and betting favorites for Sunday's DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at the Circuit of the Americas.
Shane van Gisbergen, the renowned road course racer who won five times last year, is the betting favorite to win this weekend's race at COTA. He's followed by Trackhouse Racing teammate Connor Zilisch, who is seeking his first career win in the Cup Series.
Here's a look at the latest DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix odds with a few of my early picks to win Sunday's race at COTA.
📊 NASCAR at COTA betting odds
Here's a look at the current odds to win Sunday's race at COTA via DraftKings:
| Driver | Team | Winner | Top-3 finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Racing | +120 | -250 |
| Connor Zilisch | Trackhouse Racing | +350 | +110 |
| Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | +900 | +265 |
| William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | +1000 | +300 |
| Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | +1500 | +450 |
| Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports | +1600 | +450 |
| Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing | +2000 | +550 |
| Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | +2200 | +600 |
| Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | +2500 | +700 |
| Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | +2800 | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | Richard Childress Racing | +2800 | +800 |
| AJ Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing | +3000 | +850 |
| Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing | +3500 | +1000 |
| Michael McDowell | Front Row Motorsports | +3500 | +1000 |
| Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports | +3500 | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | +4500 | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | Team Penske | +6000 | +1700 |
| Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | +6000 | +1700 |
| Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports | +6500 | +1800 |
| Austin Cindric | Team Penske | +8000 | +2200 |
| Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports | +8000 | +2800 |
| Ryan Preece | Stewart-Haas Racing | +9000 | +2500 |
| Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing | +10000 | +2800 |
| Noah Gragson | Front Row Motorsports | +20000 | +5500 |
| Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports | +30000 | +8000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club | +30000 | +8000 |
| Cole Custer | Haas Factory Team | +30000 | +8000 |
| Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing | +30000 | +8000 |
| Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | +30000 | +8000 |
| Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports | +30000 | +8000 |
| Jesse Love | Richard Childress Racing | +40000 | +11000 |
| Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club | +40000 | +11000 |
| Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing | +50000 | +13000 |
| Riley Herbst | 23XI Racing | +50000 | +13000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | Hyak Motorsports | +50000 | +13000 |
| Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing | +50000 | +13000 |
| Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing | +50000 | +13000 |
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😤 Will SVG win as betting favorite?
It's pretty hard to bet against van Gisbergen on road courses, where he won five races last year in six tries with a sixth-place finish last year at COTA despite leading 23 laps.
Consider this: over the last five road course races in the Cup Series, the former three-time Supercaps champion has reached Victory Lane in all five races while leading nearly 60% of the total laps in that stretch. Nobody else has led more than 10% in those races.
Frankly, I'm surprised SVG isn't dealing at shorter than even money given his dominance on tracks like this, though his failure to win last year's COTA race is likely inflating his price here. I wouldn't overthink it: if you like SVG to win, take advantage of the plus-money odds available early in the week before it shortens closer to race time.
🔥 More NASCAR contenders at COTA
Here's a look at the other top contenders for Sunday's Texas Grand Prix:
Connor Zilisch (+350)
Zilisch won at COTA last year in the Xfinity Series and is making his full-time Cup Series debut in 2026. He's struggled in the first two oval races (P33 at Daytona, P30 at Atlanta), but he's proven his mettle on road courses at the lower levels, so he could surprise and challenge his Trackhouse teammate for the win at a course he knows well.
Christopher Bell (+900)
The defending winner returns after holding off William Byron by 0.433 seconds to win last year's race at COTA. While Bell is one of the best oval drivers in the field, he's also a road course ace with a strong track record here driving for one of NASCAR's top teams in Joe Gibbs Racing. Even with a slow start to this season, Bell should be in the mix to win this week.
William Byron (+1000)
Byron won this race in 2024 and came within a half-second of repeating as the race winner last year. He's been one of the most consistent drivers on this track since the Cup Series started running here in 2021, so there's value here on the Hendrick Motorsports star to shake off a slow start to the season and earn his first win of 2026.
💰 Early picks & best bets at COTA
Here's a look at the best values on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
The 23XI star has won the first two races of the season and leads the field in average stat ranking and average points earned at COTA, according to NASCAR stats guru Daniel Cespedes. I'm pretty shocked to see him dealing at such long odds, and he'd be my best bet for this race outside of the two Trackhouse favorites.
Chase Elliott (+2200)
NASCAR's most popular driver was once lauded for his reputation as a road course ace, winning seven such races from 2018-21, but he hasn't won one since. He did finish eighth in his last road race with top-five finishes in four of his last seven, so I love these long-shot odds on Elliott to break that streak on Sunday.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
Buescher remains one of the only drivers to outduel SVG on a road course, winning in a dramatic finish at Watkins Glen in 2024 for his first career road-course win. He's finished in the top five in his last two road races, so he shouldn't be dealing at such a discount to win Sunday's race at COTA, where he boasts three straight top-10 finishes.
🏆 Past NASCAR winners at COTA
Here's a look at the five winners of the Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas:
| Year | Winner | Team | Laps led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 8 |
| 2024 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 42 |
| 2023 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 41 |
| 2022 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | 31 |
| 2021 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports | 5 |
Five different winners in five years tells you everything you need to know about COTA - anyone can win here if they nail the setup and execute on race day. The driver who leads the most laps has won three of the four races at COTA since the Next Gen car debuted in 2022, which means track position and pit strategy will be crucial on Sunday.
📺 How to watch NASCAR at COTA: 2026 DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 1
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Circuit of the Americas (Austin, Texas)
- TV: FOX
- Track: 2.4-mile, 17-turn road course (228 miles in 95 laps)
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