🏎️ NASCAR Championship Odds 2026: Should Tyler Reddick Be Favored After Record Start?

Tyler Reddick is on an all-time heater after winning the first three races of the NASCAR season for the first time in Cup Series history. So why isn't he the favorite by the NASCAR championship odds after his record-setting start?

After winning his third straight race last week at COTA, Reddick is still listed with the seventh-best odds to win the title across the best sports betting sites entering Sunday's upcoming race at Phoenix. But he has the entire NASCAR world buzzing - even 23XI Racing owner Michael Jordan can't get enough of his driver's hot start.

Below, we break down the latest NASCAR championship odds, Reddick's historic start, why he isn't the favorite, and who we'd bet instead after three races.

🏆 NASCAR championship odds 2026

Here's a look at the latest NASCAR championship odds via BetMGM:

🔥 How Reddick made history in 2026

Since NASCAR was founded in 1948, there had never been a driver to win the first three races of the season - in fact, it seemed almost absurd to suggest it was even possible.

Entering this season, only six drivers had even won the first two races of the year and none since Matt Kenseth in 2009. Part of that is the natural volatility of stock car racing and the difficulty of winning consecutive races at any point in the calendar. But the early Cup Series schedule adds an even greater layer of ridiculousness to Reddick's feat.

His first win, fittingly, came at the birthplace of NASCAR in the Daytona 500 - a race famous for its spectacular crashes and vexing even the best drivers in the history of the sport. He followed that with a win at Atlanta, another superspeedway-style track that often produces big wrecks and surprise winners ... until Reddick doubled down with a daring pass in overtime for his second straight win.

That was impressive enough for the 30-year-old Reddick, who didn't win a single race last season. But his third act came at a road course, which takes a fundamentally different skill set than superspeedway racing, despite entering the week as a 16/1 long shot coming off two straight wins.

None of that mattered as he won the pole and completely dominated the race, leading 58 of 95 laps to hold off heavy favorite Shane van Gisbergen and win his third race in as many tries. That secured his spot in the history books - but it still wasn't enough to command respect from oddsmakers in the championship market.

🤔 Why is Reddick not the NASCAR championship favorite?

As impressive as Reddick's early start has been - especially after opening at +1600 odds to win it all, tied for the eighth-shortest odds - he's yet to do the one thing that tends to separate championship drivers from the rest of the field: win on a 1.5-mile track.

The first three races have been at drafting-style tracks and a road course, which are the two "extremes" on the Cup Series circuit. The vast majority of races are somewhere in between with short tracks (less than 1 mile) and intermediate tracks (1 mile to 2 miles, usually 1.5 miles) making up the meat of the schedule across 36 races.

That matters more than ever this year with NASCAR returning to the "Chase" format with the winner determined based on their performance across the entire season - 26 races to determine the playoff field and initial standings, then 10 races to crown a champion.

Reddick will certainly enter the playoffs at an advantage even if he doesn't win another race over his next 23 tries, but he'll still need to outduel title favorites Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and the rest of a loaded field in order to hoist his first championship trophy.

He's certainly capable of doing so - the last three weeks have proved that - but even a historic star isn't enough to change the bigger picture. The NASCAR season is among the longest in professional sports, and there's still a long road ahead for Reddick to win it all.

💰 Should you bet Reddick to win NASCAR championship?

I completely understand why the best sports betting apps are skeptical about Reddick's title chances despite his record-setting start. But it doesn't mean there isn't still value betting on the hottest driver in the field to carry that momentum across the season.

A bet right now at his +1000 odds via BetMGM would turn a $100 bet into a $1,000 profit at the end of the season if Reddick can translate his early success into a season-long heater. He's fully equipped to do so: the 23XI star is the only driver in NASCAR history to win his first 10 races at 10 different tracks, so don't count him out as a superspeedway and road race specialist; he's proven to be much more than that in his Cup Series career.

That said, my money is on Ryan Blaney (+550) to win the second championship of his career after winning in 2023. The No. 12 car was arguably the fastest in the field at COTA last week despite finishing eighth, and he led laps at both Daytona and Atlanta with a blistering pace for Team Penske.

Blaney was my best bet to win it all in my NASCAR preseason predictions, and he's exceeded even my lofty expectations so far despite mediocre results through three weeks. NASCAR betting is often about parsing out performance and actual results; if Blaney maintains his early showing all year, he'll be tough to beat.