🏎️ NASCAR AI Predictions at Phoenix: Claude's Picks for Straight Talk Wireless 500 Today
Our NASCAR AI predictions project the first traditional oval of the season ahead of the Straight Talk Wireless 500 today at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) from Phoenix Raceway.
We've switched from our ChatGPT picks last year to a brand-new simulation model powered by Claude - the trending AI chatbot by Anthropic known for its complex reasoning skills - which nailed Tyler Reddick as its long shot to win last week. But the simulation is fading the three-time winner this week at Phoenix.
Note these picks are for entertainment purposes; for more (human) analysis, check out my full NASCAR predictions at Phoenix for today's race.
🤖 NASCAR AI predictions for Phoenix
NASCAR AI predictions generated via Claude for entertainment purposes.
NASCAR pick to win: Ryan Blaney
The simulation gives Blaney the edge on the first true oval of 2026. He owns the best average finish (5.8) at Phoenix in the NextGen era, posting seven top-5s in eight starts since 2022. Blaney won the Championship Race here last November in overtime and was arguably the fastest car at COTA last week despite finishing eighth. Team Penske has three cars starting in the top five—Logano on pole, Cindric P3, Blaney P5—and the organization's Phoenix data advantage is unmatched. The driver who leads the most laps has won eight of the last 13 Phoenix races, and Blaney's long-run speed makes him the most likely candidate to control clean air.
Best NASCAR prop: Joey Logano top 3
Logano starts on pole and has two Phoenix wins in the NextGen era. He's finished top 3 in two of his last three races here, and six of his last 12 Phoenix starts dating back to 2020 have resulted in podiums. At +220 for a top-3 finish, the implied probability is just 31%—far too low for a three-time champion starting P1 at a track where qualifying position matters. Phoenix rewards cars that get out front early, and Logano will have the best track position of anyone at the drop of the green flag.
Best NASCAR long shot: Josh Berry to win
Berry finished 4th and 7th at Phoenix last year—the only driver besides Larson and Hamlin with two top-7 finishes at this track in 2025. At +2200, he's massively undervalued for a driver who has shown genuine Phoenix speed with the Wood Brothers. Berry starts P10 with clean air ahead of him and slots into a position where he can pick off cars on long runs. He's the sneaky value play in a race where consistent equipment trumps chaos.
🏁 NASCAR AI predictions: Finishing order for every driver at Phoenix
Claude's projected finishing order for all 37 drivers in the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500.
| Pos | # | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske Ford |
| 2 | 20 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
| 3 | 22 | Joey Logano | Team Penske Ford |
| 4 | 5 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 5 | 24 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 6 | 11 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
| 7 | 21 | Josh Berry | Wood Brothers Racing Ford |
| 8 | 2 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske Ford |
| 9 | 1 | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
| 10 | 9 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 11 | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing Toyota |
| 12 | 77 | Carson Hocevar | Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 13 | 19 | Chase Briscoe | Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
| 14 | 17 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing Ford |
| 15 | 54 | Ty Gibbs | Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
| 16 | 7 | Daniel Suarez | Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 17 | 48 | Alex Bowman | Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 18 | 8 | Kyle Busch | Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
| 19 | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 23XI Racing Toyota |
| 20 | 88 | Connor Zilisch | Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
| 21 | 60 | Ryan Preece | RFK Racing Ford |
| 22 | 71 | Michael McDowell | Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 23 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
| 24 | 97 | Shane van Gisbergen | Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
| 25 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet |
| 26 | 35 | Riley Herbst | 23XI Racing Toyota |
| 27 | 38 | Zane Smith | Front Row Motorsports Ford |
| 28 | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
| 29 | 33 | Austin Hill | Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
| 30 | 3 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
| 31 | 10 | Ty Dillon | Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
| 32 | 43 | Erik Jones | Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
| 33 | 34 | Todd Gilliland | Front Row Motorsports Ford |
| 34 | 4 | Noah Gragson | Front Row Motorsports Ford |
| 35 | 41 | Cole Custer | Haas Factory Team Chevrolet |
| 36 | 51 | Cody Ware | Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet |
| 37 | 6 | Brad Keselowski | RFK Racing Ford |
✅ NASCAR AI picks & best odds
See more sports picks for all of our NASCAR analysis based on the latest betting odds.
| Predictions | Best odds | AI confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney to win | +380 via FanDuel | 22% |
| Joey Logano top 3 | +200 via Caesars | 38% |
| Josh Berry to win | +2800 via DraftKings | 7% |
🔢 Straight Talk Wireless 500 starting lineup
Here is the full starting lineup for today's race, with Logano sitting on the pole.
| Position | Driver |
|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | Austin Cindric |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | Ross Chastain |
| 7 | Carson Hocevar |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick |
| 9 | William Byron |
| 10 | Josh Berry |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | Christopher Bell |
| 13 | Ryan Preece |
| 14 | Ty Gibbs |
| 15 | John H. Nemecheck |
| 16 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 19 | Connor Zilisch |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe |
| 21 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 22 | Riley Herbst |
| 23 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 24 | Zane Smith |
| 25 | Austin Dillon |
| 26 | Chase Elliott |
| 27 | Austin Hill |
| 28 | Bubba Wallace |
| 29 | Kyle Busch |
| 30 | Todd Gilliland |
| 31 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 32 | Erik Jones |
| 33 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | Cody Ware |
| 35 | Noah Gragson |
| 36 | Cole Custer |
| 37 | Brad Keselowski |
📺 How to watch NASCAR at Phoenix: 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500
- Date: Sunday, March 8
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Phoenix Raceway (Avondale, Ariz.)
- TV: FS1
- Track: 1-mile, low-banked tri-oval (312 laps, 312 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 (60 laps), Stage 2 (125 laps), final stage (127 laps)
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