Fever vs. Lynx WNBA Picks: Minnesota Looks to Win at Home Without Fowles

Top WNBA Fever vs Lynx picks for June 12. Three plays for a big payout! Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Henry John

Last Updated: June 12, 2022 9:04 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Without Sylvia Fowles, the Minnesota Lynx will seek to avenge their loss to the Indiana Fever from earlier this season at home on Sunday night.

Among the four WNBA games scheduled for Sunday is a cross-conference tilt between the Fever and Lynx.

It was clear before the 2022 WNBA season that it would likely be a long one for the Fever (5-10 against, 8-6-1 Over/Under) and their fans. Sure enough, Indiana has struggled mightily, as 12 of the team’s 15 games thus far have been defeats, including each of the last five. Indiana’s most recent outing resulted in a 14-point home loss to New York.

In a similar vein, the Lynx (5-8 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U) have also gotten off to a slow start this season. Minnesota began the season with four straight losses and has lost each of the last two games entering Sunday’s contest. Most recently, the Lynx were routed by Washington on Friday night.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Fever and Lynx (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Fever vs. Lynx Game Info

Date: Sunday, June 11, 9 p.m. ETLocation: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Fever vs. Lynx Odds

Fever vs. Lynx Odds Analysis

With the Fever and Lynx entering Sunday’s matchup with only three wins apiece, it’s no surprise this is priced a fairly even contest. Bookmakers opened the spread in favor of Minnesota by 2 points. Since then, several shops have moved the line down to Lynx -1.5.

While the point spread has shrunk a tad, the total for this game has actually been inflated. An opening O/U line of 165 has since been bet up to 167. Bettors can still find lower variations of this consensus line at select sportsbooks.

One interesting development on the ticket count front is that the underdog Fever have attracted a whopping 83% of all Moneyline wagers. Thus, the public is clearly willing to back Indiana to score an outright win on the road.

Fever vs. Lynx Key Players

Guard Kelsey Mitchell leads three Fever players averaging double-figures scoring this season with 19 points per game. Mitchell is also the team leader in assists with 3.9 per contest. NaLyssa Smith and Victoria Vivens are the only other Indiana players averaging north of eight points per game on the season.

The dynastic run of years past may feel like a distant memory for Lynx fans, but this team still has a fair bit of talent to go around. Veteran center Fowles continues to put up big numbers and is averaging a double-double in her 15th WNBA season. Unfortunately, for the Lynx, Fowles has been ruled out indefinitely with a knee injury she suffered in the team’s game last Tuesday. Kayla McBride, Aerial Powers, and Moriah Jefferson are also all averaging over a dozen points per contest.

Fever vs. Lynx Picks

Spread: Lynx -1.5 (-115) ??Total: Under 167 (-110) ????Prop: Lynx by 1-5 Points (+320) ??

Fever vs. Lynx Predictions

Lynx -1.5 (-115)

The fact that the Lynx will be without their best player in Fowles has undoubtedly been a huge factor in the Fever drawing such a large amount of public betting action. In fact, Fowles may not be the only impact player who Minnesota is without on Sunday. McBride is officially listed as questionable with a foot injury. She played just 21 minutes and was extremely ineffective in the team’s loss Friday night.

Although the Lynx are not favored by much, the fact that they are trending toward being the contrarian play is very noteworthy. If McBride is ruled out entirely, Minnesota will be without each of its top two scorers. Based on the fact that the market has yet to make a drastic move on this game, one has to believe she will be available this evening.

The Fever and Lynx already faced each other once this season. That May 10 contest in Indiana saw the Fever earn a six-point home win. Despite the injury concerns facing the Lynx, the fact that each of Indiana’s last five games has resulted in double-digit losses hardly inspires confidence. Minnesota should be able to avenge the loss from a month ago on its home floor tonight.

Under 167 (-110)

It’s interesting to note that the total has risen two full points ahead of Sunday’s contest. When it comes to a statistical comparison of these two teams, it’s pretty ugly across the board.

Perhaps one stat that has fed the frenzy of money on the Over is pace. The Fever rank second in the league when it comes to average tempo. While the Lynx are quite a bit slower overall, the absence of Fowles could effectively speed things up for Minnesota.

The problem with relying solely on pace when handicapping a game total is that the total number of possessions a team has doesn't mean much if said team can’t score. The Fever may be the second-quickest team in the WNBA when it comes to tempo, but they rank just 10th in offensive rating. The Lynx are merely one spot higher in ninth.

Of course, the absence of Fowles means that one of the best scorers on either roster will miss this game. The lack of reliable offensive weapons on both sides could lead to some very ugly offensive basketball on Sunday night.

It’s also worth noting that the first head-to-head matchup between the teams this season featured only 158 total points scored.

Lynx by 1-5 Points (+320)

Even with the injury issues the Lynx are dealing with, the fact that the Fever have attracted such a lopsided majority of public bets is a key reason why we are on Minnesota in this game. With that being said, it is also extremely difficult to envision the Lynx winning this game by more than two possessions. This sentiment will be especially true if McBride is limited and/or ineffective.

Given this rationale, bettors might consider taking a stab on the Lynx to win Sunday’s contest by a margin of 1-5 points. Relative to the spread of 1.5 points, this margin range affords over three points (one possession) of leeway. A +320 price is nothing to sneeze at either.

Where to Bet on Fever vs. Lynx Picks

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Fever-Lynx picks made on 6/12/2022 at 1:01 p.m. ET.

Written by:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.