🏎️ Australian Grand Prix Predictions & Odds 2026: Can Mercedes Live up to the Hype?
The start of the F1 season is here, and my Australian Grand Prix odds and predictions take you through everything you'll need to know for Saturday's race at Albert Park in Melbourne, Australia (11 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Will McLaren rise to the top again, or is it Mercedes' turn to put on a show after several top-tier off-season upgrades to its car? I'm featuring George Russell, Charles Leclerc, and Oscar Piastri, with the former expected to get off to a rip-roaring start.
📊 Australian Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Australian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Charles Leclerc | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Lando Norris | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Isack Hadjar | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Pierre Gasly | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Franco Colapinto | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Sergio Perez | +100000 | 0.1% | $10,000 |
Will war in Iran impact Australian Grand Prix?
While travel schedules will be impacted, the Australian Grand Prix will not. No alterations, cancellations, or schedule adjustments are expected for the F1 season opener at Albert Park in Melbourne, Australia.
💰 Australian Grand Prix predictions, best bets
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes | +200 via BetMGM | 0.5u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc, Ferrari | +100 via BetMGM | .25u -> .25u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Long shot pick: Oscar Piastri | +1400 via BetMGM | .1u -> 1.4u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 0.85 units | Max profit: 2.65 units
🏆 Pick to win Australian Grand Prix: George Russell
Russell finished third in last season's opener in Melbourne. But it's not last year's solid performance that has me backing the Brit to win. Mercedes is expected to have the superior car on the grid, at least early in the season.
The team's technical enhancements to the floor and to the rear wing should provide a leg up on competitors, with Mercedes not showing the extent of its superiority during Bahrain's six-day testing period.
They didn't want to show all their cards, a sign that Russell and Mercedes have something pleasantly surprising in store Down Under.
🥉 Top 3 finish at Australian Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc
Ferrari is in a similar boat to Mercedes, but for different reasons. Scuderia should have a decisive advantage out of the starting gate after mastering the newly introduced, complex procedure for getting cars off the line.
In addition, Leclerc set the fastest time in both of Bahrain's three-day test sessions. The new SF-26 is also being highly touted for its innovative rear wing trick, which might be in play Down Under.
With all of the mentioned upgrades, I'm expecting a substantially superior performance from his eighth-place finish in last season's Australian GP.
🎯 Best long shot Australian Grand Prix pick: Oscar Piastri
Piastri made a critical error in last season's Australian GP that prevented him from winning on home soil. If he races error-free, the Aussie is in with a chance of taking the checkered flag.
However, McLaren might be behind the 8-ball coming out of the gate this season. And Piastri sputtered across the finish line last season, losing his sizable advantage over teammate and eventual champion Lando Norris.
Australian Grand Prix betting tips: Why is Mercedes the betting favorite?
A lot, and I do mean a lot, has changed for the 2026 F1 season. I can't stress enough the importance of learning as much as possible from opening weekend in Melbourne.
First, the starting procedure has changed, and it's throwing teams for a loop. Ferrari is the only team that has seemingly mastered the new procedure.
In fact, the decision-makers might have to alter the current set-up because of safety concerns. That would aggravate a Ferrari team that has worked hard to gain an advantage.
Why is Mercedes the betting favorite Down Under?
Like McLaren last season, it appears Mercedes has the superior car entering the season. It was reluctant at the Bahrain testing to show how much of an advantage, deciding not to complete a full race pace simulation.
That tipped off other teams, and it has the F1 world expecting big things from last season's second-place finishers. Some of Mercedes enhancements include:
- Notable engine upgrades
- Series of technical updates, most notably to the floor and rear wing
💡 How I'm betting Australian Grand Prix
I'm approaching the first race of the season cautiously. There are way too many unknowns to be confident in any bet, even those with the highest probability.
That's why I'm risking only 0.85 units on the Australian Grand Prix, 0.5 of which are on my winner pick, Russell. Long shots performed poorly last season, which is why I'm only designating .1 units to Piastri.
Ferrari performed well at Bahrain's tests, but I need to see more from them before investing further. One unit is worth $10.
💡 How to bet on F1
Our Sean Tomlinson digs into how to bet on the F1 in 2026, providing insight you won't want to miss.
🏆 Past Australian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Australian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Thursday, March 5 (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Practice 2: Friday, March 6 (midnight ET)
- Practice 3: Friday, March 6 (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 7 (midnight ET)
- Race: Saturday, March 7 (11 p.m. ET)
📺 How to watch 2026 Australian Grand Prix
- Date: Saturday, March 7
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- Location: Albert Park (Melbourne, Australia)
- How to watch: ESPN
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