Alouettes vs. Elks Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Fajardo Poised to Go Buck Hunting
The Montreal Alouettes made a statement in Week 1 and look ready to ride that momentum into Week 2 against the Edmonton Elks, and we're offering our top Alouettes vs. Elks predictions based on the best CFL odds.
In Week 1, the Montreal Alouettes (1-0) looked like the same team that pulled off multiple upsets on their way to winning it all last year, and now the Edmonton Elks (0-1) are next on the menu.
The Elks have the benefit of home-field advantage in Friday's 9 p.m. ET (TSN/TDS, CFL+) matchup at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, Alberta. However, they're a 4.5-point underdog against Montreal, which has the second-shortest Grey Cup odds.
Behind the arm of Cody Fajardo - who looks like a good CFL Most Outstanding Player odds bet already - the Alouettes should win another on the road out west.
Alouettes vs. Elks prediction
Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Alouettes -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Despite being crowned the Grey Cup champs last year, there were doubts around the Alouettes heading into their Week 1 rematch against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. It didn't take long to recognize that Montreal is for real again this year, as it beat the breaks off the Bombers on the road to the tune of a 27-12 win.
Even the loss of All-Star receiver Austin Mack to the NFL didn't matter with Canadian Tyson Philpot looking like he's made the leap to WR1 status. Between Fajardo, Philpot, and Montreal's vaunted defense, the Als are poised to beat up on an Elks squad that lacks an identity.
Edmonton was the worst team in the league last year and the addition of McLeod Bethel-Thompson at QB doesn't look like the quick fix that Chris Jones thought it would be. It's not that the offense lacks talent; it's that the defense isn't good enough to support it.
The Elks gave up 29 points in Week 1 to a Saskatchewan Roughriders squad full of new faces. Given Jones is a perpetual job hopper, things could get rough in Edmonton this season if his defense continues to play like it has since he took over in 2022.
The Elks have ranked in the bottom two for points allowed in each of the last two seasons. With Fajardo looking more and more comfortable in Jason Maas' and Anthony Calvillo's offense, he should be able to hunt a weak Elks secondary. And while rain is a concern, if Montreal has to lean on the ground game, Walter Fletcher is capable of running all over an Edmonton defense that gave up the most rushing yards per game last season (136.6).
These odds imply a 52.83% probability that Montreal beats Edmonton by five or more points, according to our odds converter. A $10 bet on the Alouettes pays an $8.93 profit if they cover.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel
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Alouettes vs. Elks first team to score
Alouettes (-167)
While Montreal didn't score first in its Week 1 game, and Edmonton did in its, I'm backing the Alouettes to reverse that outcome in Week 2.
An early interception from Fajardo is the only reason Winnipeg scored so quickly against a Montreal defense that was lights out. I'm expecting Edmonton to have even more trouble moving the ball against Darnell Sankey and Co. than the Bombers did in Week 1.
On the flip side, Fajardo and Philpot were electric in the opener and should quickly get after an Elks secondary that leaves a lot to be desired. The only concern here is that Edmonton has a better kicker (Boris Bede) than Montreal (David Cote), but I don't think the Elks will be able to get into field goal range before the Als score.
These odds imply a 62.55% probability Montreal scores first with a $10 bet paying out $15.99.
Alouettes vs. Elks odds
Alouettes vs. Elks odds via Betway as of Wednesday at 12:20 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alouettes | -244 | -5 (-111) | Over: 47.5 (-111) |
| Elks | +195 | +5 (-111) | Under: 47.5 (-111) |
It's pretty clear that Montreal is the better team heading into this matchup, and our best sportsbooks all have the Alouettes favored by between 4.5 and 5.5 points. Even home-field advantage for Edmonton isn't much of a concern after Montreal beat the Bombers in Winnipeg last week as a 7-point underdog. The Alouettes are 11-7-1 ATS dating back to last season while the Elks are 6-13.
Looking at the total, it's a bit high with how ferocious Montreal's defense played against a Bombers offense full of All-Star talent. While the Elks have a few big-time receivers, they only mustered 21 points against a Saskatchewan team that allowed the most points in the CFL last season (30.6). Thanks to their defense, the Als have been a consistent Under bet, too, going 11-8 since 2023.
Alouettes vs. Elks game info
- When: Friday, June 14
- Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, Alberta
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 70 degrees, 15-mph winds, 70% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Montreal -4.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
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