The Las Vegas Aces begin an intriguing road trip on Tuesday with a matchup against the Atlanta Dream. Read on for our Aces vs. Dream prediction based on the best WNBA odds.
The Las Vegas Aces, who have been atop the WNBA standings and title favorites all season, looked mortal last week. The Aces split a back-to-back with the New York Liberty, falling to their rivals in the Commissioner's Cup. Las Vegas then suffered a 78-72 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks as a double-digit favorite on Sunday.
At 28-4, the Aces still have the inside track to claiming the No. 1 seed in the 2023 WNBA Playoffs. But, for the first time all season, Las Vegas appears to be vulnerable ahead of a daunting four-game road trip.
Can the Atlanta Dream (16-16) take advantage on Tuesday?
Here is our best Aces vs. Dream prediction (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Aces vs. Dream prediction
Dream +16.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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If not for Thursday's win over the Liberty, last week would have been a concerning one for the Aces. Still, after a 1-2 clip, I can't help but wonder if the lack of depth is starting to catch up to Las Vegas during the home stretch of a 40-game regular season.
After this contest against the Dream, the Aces will continue their four-game road trip with matchups against the Chicago Sky (Thursday), Washington Mystics (Saturday), and New York Liberty (Monday) over the next week. They also have a trip to the White House this weekend after winning last year's championship.
Simply put, there are going to be opportunities to bet against the Aces over the next week, as this stretch will be truly challenging for a team trying to lock up the No. 1 overall seed.
Perhaps Las Vegas bounce backs with a convincing win over Atlanta following Sunday's surprising defeat.
The market seems to believe so, which makes sense based on previous head-to-head matchups. The Aces have won all three meetings against the Dream by an average of 15.7 points per game, and Atlanta has been reeling in August with a 2-5 record this month.
But my projections indicate the spread has moved too much in the Aces' favor, particularly based on recent form. I make the spread 11.3 for this game and will certainly take the inflated spread in favor of the home underdog ahead of tipoff.
Aces vs. Dream best odds
DraftKings, BetMGM (-110)
|Dream +15.5||Dream +16.5||Dream +16.5||Dream +16||Dream +16|
The market has pushed this line further in the Aces' favor, so there is always a chance we get a better number. But after opening as low as 13.5 at DraftKings, I think we've reached the high point at 16.5.
In this case, I paid the -114 vig to take the full 16.5 points out of respect for the market's initial push. Given my projection, we'd be willing to play this at +16 or better before passing on this game entirely.
Since placing this bet, BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering standard -110 odds on the 16.5-point spread. We'd suggest taking advantage of those prices instead.
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Aces vs. Dream game info
- Date: Tuesday, Aug. 22, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: WNBA League Pass
- Location: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
Aces-Dream pick made 08/22/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
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