Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 16
I’m going right back to the well even though New York laid an egg in the series opener as I make my Yankees vs. Twins prediction. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday evening from Target Field in Minneapolis.
New York is a -169 betting favorite to defeat the Twins on the road.
My MLB picks favor the Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. in an advantageous matchup against Minnesota righty Zebby Matthews, and I’m riding with the Over on one of his player props.
⚾ Yankees vs. Twins prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Yankees (-169 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Yankees -1.5 (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 9 (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Yankees vs. Twins preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔥 Yankees -1.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Yankees were unable to get anything going at the plate in the series opener, mustering just two hits in a listless 7-0 shutout loss.
The win improved Minnesota to just 4-10 in September, and Twins pitching still sits 28th in ERA (5.49), 29th in opponents’ batting average (.276), and 28th in WHIP (1.47) since the All-Star break.
Zebby Matthews has performed better in starts at Target Field but still has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 14 outings this season. Matthews’ fastball has been an issue in 2025, allowing a .344 batting average and .581 slugging percentage. The Yankees are fourth in MLB in slugging percentage and third in Baseball Savant’s Batter Run Value metric against fastballs this season. That should be a recipe for success against Matthews’ heater.
One of the best sports betting sites, bet365, offered -105 odds on the Yankees -1.5, which nets out a profit of $9.52 on a $10 bet. The -105 odds have an implied probability of 51.22%.
💰 Best Yankees vs. Twins player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has fared very well against fastballs this season, hitting 20 home runs with a .256 batting average and a .561 slugging percentage. He’s had his issues with strikeouts in 2025 but sits in the 91st percentile in barrel rate.
Chisholm has also been prolific against right-handed pitching, slashing .240/.339/.523 (.862 OPS) with 25 of his 29 home runs on the season. Target Field has been an above-average offensive environment for boosting run production in 2025, sitting 12th on Statcast’s Park Factors Leaderboard.
A $10 wager on Chisholm to go Over pays out a profit of $9.52 at Caesars. The -105 odds have an implied probability of 51.22%.
📊 Yankees vs. Twins odds: Sept. 16
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Yankees vs. Twins betting odds analysis
New York opened as a -170 favorite, with some of the best sports betting apps offering the Yankees as low as -167.
🔢 Yankees vs. Twins stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Yankees (83-67) | Statistic (per game) | Twins (66-84) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.16 | Runs | 4.26 |
| 8.39 | Hits | 8.05 |
| .248 | AVG | .240 |
| .452 | SLG | .400 |
| .781 | OPS | .713 |
| 4.02 | ERA | 4.59 |
| 8.95 | K/9 | 8.63 |
| 3.52 | BB/9 | 2.94 |
| 1.10 | HR/9 | 1.23 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Twins injuries
📺 Yankees vs. Twins game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 16
- Kickoff: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Field (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: Local TV
❓ Yankees vs. Twins FAQs
Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Twins?
The Yankees are a -169 favorite to defeat the Twins on the road on Tuesday.
What is the run line for Yankees vs. Twins?
New York is a -1.5 run line favorite against Minnesota in Tuesday’s matchup.
What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Twins?
The total for Tuesday’s game between the Yankees and Twins is 9.
What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Twins?
My best bets for Tuesday’s Yankees vs. Twins game are New York -1.5 and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-105).
When is the Yankees vs. Twins game?
First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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