⚾ Yankees vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, April 12

The New York Yankees look to avoid their first sweep of the season after losing their first two games of the series to their AL East rival, the Tampa Bay Rays. There was a tweak to the pitching matchup as New York sends one of the best pitchers in the early part of the season to the mound in Cam Schlittler to oppose Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with the Yankees as a -155 betting favorite.

My Yankees vs. Rays prediction finds value in a low-scoring game early given the successes of each starting pitcher. I especially expect Rasmussen to pitch well early, even though I find value in Ben Rice's home run odds.

⚾ Yankees vs. Rays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.14 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Rays?

New York is a perfect 3-0 when Cam Schlittler toes the rubber, with all three wins coming by at least two runs. I expect it to win a close low-scoring battle while avoiding a three-game sweep.

Score prediction: Yankees 4, Rays 2

💰 Yankees vs. Rays prediction & best bet

First five innings Under 4.5 (-130)

Entering his last start where he allowed three earned runs in five innings to the Athletics, Cam Schlittler had a 6-2 record with a 1.70 ERA spanning 74 1/3 innings over his prior 13 starts. 

Schlittler also held opponents to a .172 average, a .466 OPS, and allowed two home runs while recording a 10.8 K/9 rate in that span. To top it off, that 1.70 ERA was the fourth-lowest in the majors since Aug. 13 of last season among pitchers who threw a minimum of 40 innings (including the postseason). 

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Rays player prop bet

Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs (+113)

Drew Rasmussen makes his first start after being removed from the paternity list while he accompanied his wife while they were expecting their second child. Rasmussen has been a thorn in the Yankees side, pitching to a 1.19 ERA over 37 innings. That is the lowest ERA against New York since 2017 among those with a minimum of five games started against the Bronx Bombers. 

Meanwhile, New York’s lineup has also had power issues at Tropicana Field. The Yankees entered the series with a .654 team OPS at the Rays’ home ballpark since 2017, their lowest among all American League stadiums.

💣 Yankees vs. Rays home run prediction

Ben Rice to hit a home run (+494)

After allowing a minimal 1.0 HR/9 rate over 73 innings last season, Schlittler has yet to allow a long ball in 16 2/3 innings spanning three starts this season. That is why I’m focused on picking a Yankees hitter to go deep, despite Rasmussen’s career success against the Yankees. 

Rasmussen has allowed two home runs in 10 innings, and his 27.6% fly ball rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. 

Even if Rice doesn’t go yard against Rasmussen, he has a great chance to do so against the collection of Rays relievers who have allowed a 1.86 HR/9 rate (third-worst in the majors).

🚀 Yankees vs. Rays same-game parlay

Oftentimes I prefer to avoid home run props as part of same-game parlays to give myself a better chance of cashing. That is done out of necessity today as it would be difficult to cover the first five innings Under with Rasmussen staying Under 1.5 earned runs if Ben Rice were to homer. Either way, I'm banking on a slow day offensively from both teams regardless, but am allowing Rice to add to his team-leading .341 batting average with at least one base hit.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Rays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I fully recognize that New York has lost four straight and five of six after starting 7-1. That's why I'm not getting involved with its moneyline or runline odds. But Schlittler has already proven to be an elite stopper and bona fide ace at the top of the Yankees' rotation, and I would likely be backing Tampa Bay if any other pitcher were starting.

Aaron Judge is sure to be a popular home run pick, but he has just four hits with one double and zero RBIs in his last 21 at-bats. With him neutralized, it makes it difficult for the Yankees to score while constantly getting inconsistent production from much of the rest of the lineup outside of Rice.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Rays odds

Despite entering amid a four-game losing streak, the Yankees range from -146 moneyline favorites to -156 on the high end of the market at DraftKings. Early bettors believe in Schlittler stopping the losing skid, as 62% of the wagers have backed the favorites.

The O/U is at 7.5 runs across the market, with the juice as low as -105 (carrying a 51.22% implied probability) to back the Under at BetMGM. I don't predict much movement in the total with a near dead-even 52/48 split in slight favor of the Over.

With relation to my first five innings Under bet, DraftKings offered appealing +130 odds to back the Under, while the low end of the market was at +110. 

📈 Yankees vs. Rays betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Rays injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Rays

• Date: Sunday, April 12
• First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (2-0, 1.62 ERA)
• Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (0-0, 1.80 ERA)