⚾ Yankees vs. Giants Prediction, Picks & Parlay Tonight: MLB Odds for Opening Night, March 25
The 2026 MLB season kicks off tonight with the league’s first-ever Opening Night on Netflix, as the New York Yankees travel to face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park, with first pitch set for 8:05 p.m. ET.
Multiple players involved in this one are fresh off Team USA's disappointing World Baseball Classic result, including Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb. Taking the hill for the visitors tonight is Max Fried, and our Yankees vs. Giants prediction looks at whether we can expect a lower-scoring game when these two Cy Young candidates square off.
The Yankees are small betting favorites, but I'm expecting a longtime rival to once again punish New York fans on Opening Night.
⚾ Yankees vs. Giants picks & odds tonight
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants moneyline | +104 via FanDuel | 1u → 2.04u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H+R+RBI | +111 via DraftKings | 1u → 2.11u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ben Rice home run | +470 via FanDuel | 0.33u → 1.88u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.33 units | Max profit: 3.7 units
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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Giants tonight?
Contrary to what you might assume from a game featuring Cy Young contenders, I expect this to feature plenty of scoring. The game total is set at 7, but I anticipate double-digit runs. I like the look of this Giants lineup, and though things didn't go as planned during the second half of the 2025 season, I'm backing them to start this campaign with a W.
As part of this higher-scoring affair, I backed two hitters in a big way with my Yankees vs. Giants home run predictions.
Score prediction: Giants 7, Yankees 5
💰 Yankees vs. Giants prediction & best bet
Giants moneyline (+104)
In this battle of aces, I'll take Webb, who I'm also backing in my Yankees vs. Giants player props. He'll frustrate this Yankees lineup while his offense gets active against Fried, and the Giants should have a relatively significant lead when he exits. He got in a solid preseason workload between spring training and the WBC, and he'll be sharp on Wednesday night as a result.
The Giants' bullpen is sketchier than it was last year with Randy Rodriguez injured, Tyler Rogers in Toronto, and Camilo Doval pitching for the Yankees. However, Webb and the offense will give the bullpen enough of a cushion to hold on for the win.
🔥 Best Yankees vs. Giants player prop bet
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+111)
I don't need to tell Yankees fans this (or fellow Boston Red Sox ones), but for those who don't know, Rafael Devers is the King of New York.
He has an .880 OPS for his career against the Yankees, and his 31 homers are the most he's hit against any team. Last season, before the Red Sox traded him, he had three homers in six games against New York, with five runs scored and four RBIs total. And one of those homers came against ... you guessed it, Fried.
Rafael Devers career vs. Fried
| Player | PA | H | HR | xBA | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 9 | 3 | 1 | .282 | .667 |
💣 Yankees vs. Giants home run prediction
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+470)
Many Yankees racked up homers last year thanks to their generous ballpark. Trent Grisham had 34 homers to 27.9 expected home runs, Jazz Chisholm had 32 to 28.9, and Cody Bellinger had 30 to 28.1. However, Ben Rice actually had more xHR than long balls.
Rice absolutely annihilated the baseball in 2025. He had a 95th percentile average exit velocity, 92nd percentile barrel rate, and his 56.1% hard-hit rate was among the very best in baseball.
Oracle Park is a pitchers' park, so if someone is going to get one out, it'll need to be a nuke. Rice is the best bet when it comes to his profile and these odds.
🚀 Yankees vs. Giants same-game parlay
I'm parlaying the Giants to win with this game going Over 7 runs, and I'm adding Devers and Rice hitting props for my Yankees vs. Giants SGP at DraftKings.
As I noted above, I'm expecting Devers to play a role in a higher-scoring Giants win, so we're betting on him to record a hit. Meanwhile, I won't be so bold to include the Rice home run in this parlay, but I do like adding him to record a hit. As you can see, the odds are relatively long, so be sure to limit your wager size.
💵 Yankees vs. Giants SGP picks
- Giants moneyline (-101)
- Over 7 (-105)
- Rafael Devers 1+ hits (-161)
- Ben Rice 1+ hits (-195)
Best odds: +575 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 1.35u)
🤑 Yankees vs. Giants betting splits
| Bet type | % of bets 🎟️ | % of handle 💰 |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees ML (-125) | 69% | 75% |
| Giants ML (+105) | 31% | 25% |
| Yankees -1.5 (+145) | 74% | 66% |
| Giants +1.5 (-175) | 26% | 34% |
| Over 7 | 42% | 41% |
| Under 7 | 58% | 59% |
The betting splits indicate that the sharp money and the public are on the Yankees, but it is hard to judge betting splits on Yankees games, as the public is normally on the Yankees side. -LJ Blut
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
With the MLB season yet to begin, these are my first bets. But here is my betting record for the 2026 WBC.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39-37 | +15.46 units ✅ | 26.7% ✅ |
| Moneyline picks | 3-1 | +3.09 units ✅ | 77.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 11-23 | -0.73 units ❌ | -3.7% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Giants: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Since it's the first game of the season, I don't want to rain on anyone's parade. I personally don't love the idea of slamming a full unit on a moneyline the day before a game when we have nothing but 2025 stats to go off, but I also see why it's enticing to do so.
Here's what I'd do: I'd take the moneyline, game total (I like the Over 7), and Devers prop and split a unit between the three, or pick one to bet on alone. Then, I'd put 0.33 units on the Rice home run prop.
I think home run props are actually going to be my most profitable betting market this year, so that's what I'd prioritize in this game, along with the Devers prop. I think the Giants should win, but again, we don't have a ton of information to support that.
📊 Live Yankees vs. Giants odds
These odds haven't moved a ton since we made our initial bets on Tuesday morning, but the Yankees have become slightly bigger betting favorites. The best price on the Giants moneyline was +104, but it's now +106 at FanDuel. At DraftKings, 77% of bettors are backing the Yankees to win the first game of the MLB season. Meanwhile, bettors are nearly completely split on the total, as 49% are riding with the Over as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
📈 Yankees vs. Giants betting trends
| Yankees (2025) | Statistic | Giants (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 94-68 | W-L record | 81-81 |
| 3.91 | Team ERA | 3.84 |
| .251 | Team batting avg. | .235 |
| .787 | OPS | .697 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Giants injuries
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Giants tonight
- Date: Wednesday, March 25
- First pitch: 8.05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Oracle Park (San Francisco)
- Streaming: Netflix
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