Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, August 1

Two of Major League Baseball’s most iconic franchises continue an interleague series from iconic Wrigley Field as the Chicago Cubs host the New York Yankees. My Yankees vs. Cubs prediction expects Chicago to take advantage of an injury-riddled Bronx Bombers lineup, while Alex Bregman stays hot at the plate. I’m also high on David Peterson’s ceiling for strikeouts as part of my MLB picks.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX), with Max Fried opposing Peterson on the mound. The Yankees are -125 betting favorites.

⚾ Yankees vs. Cubs picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Cubs?

The Yankees are a middling 8-6 since the All-Star Break. Since I cannot trust their lineup with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton all on the IL, I’m backing the Cubs to win.

Score prediction: Cubs 5, Yankees 3

💰 Yankees vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Cubs ML (+108)

To say that the Yankees have felt the loss of their three biggest power threats is an understatement. Since the All-Star Break entering this series, New York averaged 3.4 runs while batting .205 as a team and logging a collective .604 OPS. I expect a lineup devoid of right-handed power when facing southpaw David Peterson to struggle again.

Chicago is 16-12 against left-handed starting pitchers, which makes up for the fact that it is four games under .500 in interleague matchups. The Cubs have also won five of their last six series, and are peaking at the right time.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Cubs player prop bet

David Peterson Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135)

In their first 15 games following the All-Star Break, the Yankees struck out a combined 129 times. With New York entering this series with a collective .665 OPS in July, which lowered to .621 against left-handed pitching, that bodes well for a long outing from Peterson.

Since being acquired by the Cubs from the Mets, Peterson’s first five starts have mostly been positive. Outside of a blow-up start where he was rocked for 10 runs in 3 ⅔ innings, Peterson has pitched to a 2.14 ERA over 21 innings in his four other starts. 

Though he has not topped four strikeouts while pitching for the Cubs, they are getting mileage out of Peterson, who has thrown 86-plus pitches in three of four July outings. He has the advantage over a Yankees lineup with the eighth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws, which worsened to the second-worst in that split in July.

💣 Yankees vs. Cubs home run prediction

Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+1300)

Alex Bregman entered this series amid a four-game extra-base hit streak, during which he was 10-for-18 with seven extra-base hits.

Over the first 93 games, Bregman batted .235 with a .338 slugging percentage, .670 OPS, and 22 extra-base hits. Over his last 14 games entering this series, Bregman was batting .322, slugging .644, and added 11 extra-base hits (1.038 OPS). 

Bregman’s hot streak coincides with his improvement against breaking balls. Over the first 131 plate appearances against such pitches, he batted .167 with six extra-base hits, a .272 slugging percentage, and a 28.1% whiff rate. Over his last 23 plate appearances in that split, he is batting .429 with six extra-base hits, a .905 slugging percentage, and a 16.7% whiff rate.

🚀 Yankees vs. Cubs same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together to help Chicago's chances of winning outright. Not only is Peterson facing the 29th-ranked lineup in strikeout rate against southpaws in July, but he has won back-to-back starts with a plus-13 run differential in that span. I am swapping my Bregman home run play for a more conservative RBI wager, with the third baseman going an impressive 6-for-16 head-to-head against Fried.

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💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Cubs: MLB strategy

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I thought about backing the Under instead of Chicago's moneyline odds given how much New York has struggled at the plate. But I didn't want to have to worry about its ability to limit the Cubs' offensive potential, especially with Max Fried not fully stretched out in just his third start back from injury. If Fried cannot pitch more than five innings, that puts a lot of stress on a Yankees bullpen that just had to endure two games of extra innings in the team's last series against the White Sox.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Cubs odds

There is a big 14-cent gap at the best MLB betting sites between New York's shortest odds at FanDuel at -118 and the -132 price (carrying a 56.90% implied probability) at bet365. That big gap may close since the line has moved in the Yankees' favor, with them going from -125 to -130 at BetMGM as one example. The betting splits justify that line movement, as 61% of the moneyline wagers have backed the road favorites.

The wind looks like it is blowing in at Wrigley Field today, as the O/U is at 6.5 at most of the best sports betting sites. Only bet365 is at 6, and remains the only sportsbook to this point to move off its original number of 6.5. It is unlikely that more will follow suit if the betting splits are still 3/1 (76/24) in support of the Over.

📈 Yankees vs. Cubs betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Cubs

• Date: Saturday, August 1
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Max Fried (4-3, 3.23 ERA)
• Cubs starter: David Peterson (6-7, 5.80 ERA)