Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Aug. 2
Two of the MLB's most storied franchises meet to close out their weekend series on Sunday afternoon when the New York Yankees take on the Chicago Cubs. My Yankees vs. Cubs prediction includes a moneyline, two player props, and an SGP.
With both clubs firmly in Wild Card contention in their respective conference, Gerrit Cole vs. Colin Rea will determine who wins this series today. Tail my MLB picks before the first pitch is thrown at 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, streaming on MLB.TV. The Cubs are now home underdogs, with the Yankees flipping into road favorites.
⚾ Yankees vs. Cubs picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees Moneyline (-122 via FanDuel) | 1.22 → 1u | Yankees have won 5 of last 8 road games played. |
| Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel) | 1.3u → 1u | Cubs averaging 7.67 strikeouts per game across last 3 games. |
| Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 Home Runs (+750 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.87u | Goldschmidt has a 10.8 barrel percentage (69th percentile) and faces Colin Rea. Rea has allowed 5 home runs in his last five starts and ranks poorly in 26th percentile for pitching run value. |
Total wagered: 2.85 units | Max profit: 3.87 units
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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Cubs?
Neither of these pitchers has been steady in terms of producing wins on the bump. However, in terms of talent, the edge goes to Gerrit Cole. He's limited three straight lineups to four hits, combining for five earned runs across this recent stretch. Colin Rea walks more batters and gives up more hits, so I expect the Yankees to wind up with a 4-3 win on Sunday afternoon.
Score prediction: Yankees 4, Cubs 3
💰 Yankees vs. Cubs prediction & best bet
Yankees Moneyline (-122)
Action has been coming in on the Yankees, moving them from +110 to -122 road favorites at Wrigley on Sunday. The edge here is Cole, who ranks in the 95th percentile in walk rate (5.0), in the 84th percentile for fastball velo (96.8), and in the 79th percentile in xERA (3.28) in nine starts this season.
The Yankees' lineup has been much less reliable than its pitching, which goes against public perception and historic trends. However, New York leads the MLB with a 3.30 ERA, while the Cubs lineup has scored just five total runs during this series.
Go to FanDuel to lay -122 odds on the Yankees moneyline.
📡 SBR Edge: Historic Day Slump
The Cubs have lost five straight home games against the Yankees following a win.
🔥 Best Yankees vs. Cubs player prop bet
Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Cole has been a strikeout machine lately, so we're playing with a bit of fire, siding with under 6.5 total strikeouts. The reason for this play is due to the Cubs' plate discipline, striking out just 7.67 times per game in their last three starts.
Cole is 1-4 for under 6.5 strikeouts in his last five starts. Chicago struck out seven times during their win on Saturday, with Max Fried racking up all seven Ks. That's not going to happen on Sunday, when the Cubs will have to generate offense to keep up with Rea's streaky pitching.
Stay on FanDuel to bet Cole to go under 6.5 strikeouts at -130 odds.
💣 Yankees vs. Cubs home run prediction
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+750)
Paul Goldschmidt has not managed much production in this series so far. That will change on Sunday, when he faces Rea, who is in the 12th percentile or worse in barrel rate (10.4), xBA (.277), and whiff rate (20.1) in 2026.
The Yankees 1B has plenty of power to go yard at a tricky ball park like Wrigley. He's rated 69th percentile in barrel percentage (10.8) and can exploit this matchup early to hit his 17th home run of the season, snapping a seven-game drought to register his first hit of the series.
There will be wind gusts upwards of 15 mph, potentially blowing in, which adds a layer of difficulty. However, Goldschmidt's power and ideal matchup against Rea warrant a small stake at a lucrative price.
Bet on Paul Goldschmidt's home run prop at +750 odds on bet365.
💥 More home run predictions?
You want more home run predictions? Mike Spector has you covered with his best home run predictions today
🚀 Yankees vs. Cubs same-game parlay
We all know Pete Crow-Armstrong is the star hitter in the Cubs' lineup. PCA has three hits in his last three starts, so we're going to pair him with Spencer Jones. Jones has been red-hot for the Yankees, logging a four-game hit streak with six total hits heading into Sunday's game.
💵 Yankees vs. Cubs SGP picks
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
- Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits (-170)
Best odds: +142 via FanDuel (1u -> 1.42u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-74-3 | -22.90 units ❌ | -24.7% ❌ |
| Game picks | 10-14-2 | -6.03 units ❌ | -27.04% ❌ |
| Player props | 13-42-1 | -9.58 units ❌ | -25.5% ❌ |
| Parlays | 8-18 | -7.30 units ❌ | -33.3% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Cubs: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking 3.85 units on the Yankees vs. Cubs matchup this afternoon. It starts with 1.22 units on the Yankees moneyline, followed by another 1.3-unit play on Gerrit Cole to finish with fewer than 7 strikeouts.
A 0.25 unit sprinkle on Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run is followed up by 1 unit on a 1+ hits parlay featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong and Spencer Jones at +142 odds.
📊 Live Yankees vs. Cubs odds
Line movement has continued to go in the Yankees' direction since opening, now sitting as short as -130 odds on select shops. The run total has stayed extremely low at 6.5.
A whopping 81 percent of public action is on the Yankees moneyline in this game. This also includes 77 percent of the run total, backing over 6.5.
📈 Yankees vs. Cubs betting trends
| Yankees | Statistic | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 62-48 | W-L record | X-X |
| 52-58 | Run line record | X-X |
| 47-59-4 | O/U record | X-X |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 3.28 | Team ERA | 4.13 |
| .232 | Team batting avg. | .248 |
| .724 | OPS | .752 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Cubs injuries
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Cubs
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 2
- First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (4-5, 3.57 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Colin Rea (8-7, 4.67 ERA)
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