Yankees vs. Astros Game 2 Picks, Predictions: Will New York’s Struggles in Houston Continue?
The Houston Astros rode ace Justin Verlander to a victory in Game 1 and now look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the ALCS over the New York Yankees. Read on for our Yankees-Astros MLB picks.
Usually, the Yankees win games that are a battle of home runs, but the Astros out-slugged them on Wednesday, hitting three long balls to New York's two in a game during which solo home runs accounted for five of the six runs.
As a result, Houston’s 4-2 Game 1 victory was its seventh in eight all-time home postseason games against New York.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday’s Game 2 between the Yankees and Astros (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Yankees vs. Astros Game Info
Date: Thursday,
Oct. 20, 7:37 p.m. ET
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston,
TX
Weather: Indoors
Yankees vs. Astros Odds
Yankees vs. Astros Odds Analysis
Houston ranges from as low as a -155 Moneyline favorite to as high as -175. Sharp action is on the favorites, as the Astros have attracted 53% of the bets and 78% of the handle.
All sportsbooks are in unison with the 7-run total. The Over is the much more popular side, attracting 63% of the bets and 93% of the cash.
Yankees vs. Astros Projected Pitchers
Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs. Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Luis Severino was limited to just 19 regular-season starts this year. He went 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA, and a .171 OBA in 50 1/3 combined innings over nine road starts. Severino shook off the rust from a 12-day layoff entering Game 3 of the ALDS, in which he allowed three earned runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings to the Guardians.
Meanwhile, Framber Valdez surpassed his previous career high in wins (11) by six victories while leading the league in complete games (three). Valdez was also durable while facing a league-high 827 batters and owning an MLB-best 0.5 HR/9 rate. His 3.0 BB/9 rate and 3.06 FIP were his best for a full season.
Yankees vs. Astros Picks
Yankees vs. Astros ML Pick
Astros (-155) ★★★★★
For the second day in a row, the Astros have a significant starting pitching advantage, which is the benefit of winning the ALDS in three games while the Yankees were pushed to the brink.
Severino’s numbers against Houston are average at best, with an ERA approaching 4.00 in six career starts against the Astros. Those numbers are even worse in the postseason, as he has failed to last five innings in any of his three playoff starts against Houston, surrendering three home runs across them and losing all three.
In Game 1, the Yankees and Astros set a postseason record for the biggest disparity in strikeouts between two teams (the Yankees struck out 17 times to the Astros' two). Houston’s strikeout rate was the second-lowest all season, and its ability to put the ball in play more consistently will be the biggest difference again in Thursday's matchup.
DraftKings is the place to go for Astros backers, as the -155 Moneyline odds it offers are much more affordable than the -175 you’d have to pay at BetMGM.
Yankees vs. Astros O/U Pick
Under 7 (-115) ★★
Yankees manager Aaron Boone has his two most trusted relievers in Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes available for multiple innings each to back up Severino.
On the other side, Valdez should pitch well, as he set a single-season MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts in 2022. Look for him to limit the Yankees, despite New York producing a better wRC+ (119 vs. 113), OPS (.768 vs. .745), and wOBA (.334 vs. 325) against lefties than righties.
Five of the seven games between the Yankees and Astros this season have gone Under the projected total, and we like the Under to cash once again.
Yankees vs. Astros Prop Pick
Altuve Under 0.5 hits (+150) ★★
Jose Altuve is mired in a 0-for-19 slump this postseason, the longest of his career. That should continue Thursday, as his career numbers against Severino are not inspiring, going 4-for-19 (all singles) with five strikeouts and no walks. Thus, we will gladly take the plus-odds on this wager, hoping that his playoff drought continues.
Where to Bet on Yankees-Astros Picks
Yankees-Astros picks made 10/20/2022 at 6:06 a.m. ET.
