White Sox vs. Astros Prediction & Picks: Game 2 AL Wild Card Odds (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
The White Sox are one win away from advancing to an ALDS for the first time since 2021, and my White Sox vs. Astros prediction backs the underdog today in Game 2 of their American League Wild Card series.
Chicago will start Sean Burke, while Houston will counter with Hunter Brown. My MLB picks fade the Astros as a -152 betting favorite, with first pitch from Daikin Park in Houston set for 5 p.m. ET (Peacock, NBCSN).
โพ White Sox vs. Astros picks & odds: AL Wild Card Game 2
See all of our expertsโ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox ML | +128 via FanDuel | 1.56 units to win 2 units |
| Jose Altuve Under 0.5 singles | -120 via BetMGM | 1.2 units to win 1 unit |
| Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs | +330 via DraftKings | 0.3 units to win 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3.06 units | Max profit: +4 units
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๐ฐ White Sox vs. Astros prediction & best bet
White Sox ML (+128 via FanDuel)
The White Sox are simply the better team offensively. Chicago is ranked 10th in MLB with a .318 xwOBA, tied with the Padres and Phillies, while Houston ranks 19th with a .311 xwOBA, tied with the Twins.
However, offense isn't everything. I'm not trying to pretend that Burke is as good a pitcher as Brown, but the gap isn't as wide as these odds suggest. Burke ranks in the 95th percentile in fastball run value and the 77th percentile in pitching run value.
White Sox ML (+128 via FanDuel) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Score prediction: White Sox 5, Astros 4
📡 SBR Edge: Houston's Bullpen vs. Chicago's Offense
Houston's bullpen allowed the seventh-most HR/9 in MLB during the regular season (1.24), while Chicago's offense hit the fifth-most homers (211).
๐ฅ Best White Sox vs. Astros player prop bet
Jose Altuve Under 0.5 singles (-120 via BetMGM)
We cashed this bet Tuesday, and I'm going back to the well with fading Jose Altuve against right-handed pitching.
Altuve is slashing just .239/.288/.384 against righties, compared with his .285/.362/.431 slash line against lefties. He's faced Burke before as well and has recorded just one single across eight career at-bats.
I would price this closer to -135 (where yesterday's line closed). Altuve Under 0.5 singles (-120 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
๐ฃ White Sox vs. Astros home run prediction
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs (+330 via DraftKings)
Two things can be true at once. I can like the White Sox at +128, and I can also like Yordan Alvarez to homer at +330.
Alvarez ranks in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Burke hasn't been great at avoiding hard, quality contact. He ranks in the 34th percentile in barrel rate and the 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate.
With Alvarez's .336/.467/.647 slash line against righties, his odds shouldn't be this long. Alvarez Over 0.5 home runs (+330 via DraftKings) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
๐ Live White Sox vs. Astros odds: AL Wild Card Game 2
The Astros opened as a -153 betting favorite at DraftKings Tuesday night. Money has come in on the White Sox, driving the Astros' price down to -147. However, I don't think six cents of movement at a rec book is worth altering our betting behavior. Pinnacle is taking over $21,000 a side at time of publish, so we likely won't see any drastic movement in this market between now and first pitch.
๐ White Sox vs. Astros injuries
๐บ How to watch White Sox vs. Astros: AL Wild Card Game 2
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
- First pitch: 5 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston)
- TV: Peacock, NBCSN
- White Sox starter: Sean Burke (Regular season: 11-7, 3.34 ERA)
- Astros starter: Hunter Brown (Regular season: 6-4, 3.19 ERA)
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