Cubs vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: Game 1 NL Wild Card Odds (Tuesday, Sept. 29)
The Chicago Cubs owned the head-to-head series tiebreaker against the San Diego Padres, and my Cubs vs. Padres prediction expects that to be the reason Chicago can overcome quirky travel over the weekend to steal Game 1 of the National League Wild Card series at Petco Park.
My MLB picks also include Overs on one of each team’s best sluggers, including Alex Bregman who has led the Majors in multiple offensive categories since mid-July. San Diego is a -125 betting favorite, and first pitch is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET, airing on NBCSN. The starting pitching matchup features Matthew Boyd vs. Michael King.
⚾ Cubs vs. Padres picks & odds: NL Wild Card Game 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs ML | +110 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.1 units |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases | +125 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.25 units |
| Alex Bregman to hit a home run | +750 via FanDuel | 0.25 units to win 1.88 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.23 units
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💰 Cubs vs. Padres prediction & best bet
Cubs ML (+110)
Chicago announced its starting pitching plans late on Monday night and tabbed Matthew Boyd with the team still re-evaluating Kevin Gausman’s health. That slightly improves Chicago's chances, as San Diego ranks slightly worse against southpaws in wRC+ (5th) than against right-handed pitchers (second).
Chicago won five of the six head-to-head meetings this season. That has to count for something, and is the reason I’m fading a San Diego team that is 41-18 since July 24 (the best record in MLB over that span and tied for the best 59-game span in franchise history).
📡 SBR Edge: Better over 162 games
Among the 12 playoff teams, the Cubs rank first in runs per game and ninth in starting pitching ERA. That is better than San Diego's ninth-ranked offense in runs per game among playoff teams and tenth-ranked starting pitching ERA.
🔥 Best Cubs vs. Padres player prop bet
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
Fernando Tatis Jr. overcame a horrible start in the power department (zero home runs through 55 games) to finish the regular season with more than respectable statistics. The Padres leadoff man ranked third in the Majors in hits, 12th in average, second in batting average with runners in scoring position, seventh in total bases, and sixth in stolen bases.
Twenty of Tatis Jr.’s 25 home runs have come since the All-Star Break. And with Boyd toeing the rubber, Tatis Jr. slashed .309/.404/.583 against left-handed pitchers.
The value we're getting at bet365 is incredible considering Ttais Jr. has as high as 54.55% implied odds through FanDuel's -120 price to cash this Over.
💣 Cubs vs. Padres home run prediction
Alex Bregman to hit a home run (+750)
Over the first 92 games, Alex Bregman slashed .235/.333/.338 with seven home runs, a 92 wRC+, and a 1.4 fWAR. But over the final 63, his slash line numbers improved to .308/.388/.648 with 21 home runs, a 182 wRC+, and 4.1 fWAR.
Bregman led the Majors in slugging and wRC+ since July 11 (min. 125 PA). And if you’re looking for a grizzled playoff veteran to carry your betting portfolios, Bregman is appearing in the postseason for the 10th straight year, something that only five over position players accomplished. It also helps that he is 7-for-8 in his career against Michael King.
📊 Live Cubs vs. Padres odds
As soon as Chicago announced it was starting Matthew Boyd on Monday night, it shortened from +108 to +105 at DraftKings. Otherwise, there wasn't much line movement throughout the day Monday, which is indicative of the near dead-even betting splits (55% of the wagers have backed the Padres).
There was reverse line movement on the total, lowering from an opening number of 7.5 to 7 at several of the best sports betting sites. That suggests sharp action is on the Under, especially since two-thirds of the wagers have backed the Over.
🚑 Cubs vs. Padres injuries
📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Padres
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: NBCSN
- Streaming: Peacock
- Cubs starter: Matthew Boyd (Regular season: 10-5, 3.91 ERA)
- Padres starter: Michael King (Regular season: 12-10, 3.21 ERA)
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