Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: Game 2 AL Wild Card Odds (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
For the second consecutive year the New York Yankees look to eliminate the Boston Red Sox in the AL Wild Card round after yesterday’s 9-0 victory, but my Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction eschews either side’s moneyline odds and instead backs what should be a pitcher’s duel between Sonny Gray and Max Fried.
Even though I expect the game to be low-scoring, I also backed two player props at plus-money odds with my other MLB picks, including one each on Roman Anthony and Ben Rice. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET, airing on NBC. New York is a -140 betting favorite.
⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees picks & odds: AL Wild Card Game 2
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 | +102 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 1.02 units |
| Roman Anthony Over 0.5 singles | +110 via BetMGM | 1 unit to win 1.1 units |
| Ben Rice to hit a home run | +350 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 0.88 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3 units
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💰 Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Under 6.5 (+102)
Gray didn’t get the ball for Boston in Game 1, but that should be no slight to the season he’s had. Gray tied for an MLB-high with 18 wins, and his 20 quality starts were seven more than any other Red Sox pitcher.
New York’s offense did not have the same pop in games that Aaron Judge was out of the lineup. In 66 games with a healthy Judge, the Yankees averaged 5.1 runs per game and slashed a collective .242/.329/.434. In their first 91 games without their top slugger, they scored 4.2 runs per game and slashed .229/.296/.388.
📡 SBR Edge: Fried's head-to-head success
Max Fried has pitched 11.2 innings against the Red Sox this year and held them to one run on six hits while striking out 13. His 1.68 career ERA against Boston is the fifth lowest by any pitcher since 1913 (min. 5 GS).
🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop bet
Roman Anthony Over 0.5 singles (+110)
With Mickey Gasper and Masataka Yoshida off the Wild Card roster nursing injuries and Willson Contreras only beginning to recover from a recent IL stint, Roman Anthony is going to have to carry the brunt of the Red Sox offense.
Anthony has a tough task going up against Fried, who has allowed a .174 OBA and a .228 slugging percentage against left-handed batters this season. In addition, Fried has allowed just four extra-base hits and no home runs in that split, and has only surrendered one extra-base hit on his curveball all season. But Anthony was too hot of a hitter down the stretch to expect him to go hitless, as he slashed .333/.375/.633 in his final eight games.
I cannot back the Over on his total bases despite the generous +195 odds at BetMGM given Fried’s ability to limit power, but these are great odds on a flier on Anthony to slap a single somewhere or produce a base hit off one of New York’s relievers.
💣 Red Sox vs. Yankees home run prediction
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+350)
Ben Rice slugged 41 home runs this season and joined Aaron Judge as the Yankees’ only two organizational draft picks to ever hit at least 40 homers in a single season.
Rice fell three RBI shy of becoming the third Yankees player since 2018 with a 40-home run and 100-RBI season. But among those that made 400 plate appearances this year, Rice was tied for third in home runs, tied for ninth in RBI, third in slugging, sixth in total bases, fifth in wRC+, tied for sixth in xSLG, and 10th in xwOBA.
Rice’s .737 slugging percentage on elevated fastballs is the highest in MLB (min. 75 PA vs. elevated fastballs). This is great home run value on a player who is one of three to rank in the 80th-plus percentile in hard-hit percentage, barrels, and chase percentage.
📊 Live Red Sox vs. Yankees odds
Despite 69% of the moneyline wagers coming in on the Yankees, there hasn't been much line movement at the best sports betting sites, even after yesterday's convincing 9-0 victory. It's possible sharp action is backing Boston, especially since there hasn't been a reaction from oddsmakers to the egregious betting splits.
The O/U is at 6.5 across the market, and all sportsbooks are offering plus-money odds on the Under. That may not last long and we could see a movement to 7 given that more than two-thirds of the wagers (68%) have backed the Over.
🚑 Red Sox vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
- Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (Regular season: 18-5, 2.72 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Max Fried (Regular season: 5-5, 2.80 ERA)
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