NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 4: ATS Predictions & Odds for Every Game
Only three teams have unblemished against-the-spread records through three weeks: the Minnesota Vikings, the Buffalo Bills, and the Las Vegas Raiders. As I offer my NFL ATS picks for Week 4, I’m pretty sure most fans and handicappers only had the Bills on that exclusive list. Six teams remain winless ATS.
I’ve combed through the Week 4 slate, choosing a winner in each while featuring three matchups.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 4 ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
| Chargers vs. Seahawks (-7) | Seahawks (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Raiders | Raiders (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (-3.5) vs. Panthers | Lions (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. 49ers (-2.5) | Broncos (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams (-3) vs. Eagles | Rams (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Texans (-2.5) | Cowboys (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers (-2.5) vs. Browns | Steelers (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts (-3.5) vs. Commanders | Commanders (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Ravens (-11.5) | Titans (+11.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Bears (-3.5) | Jets (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers | Packers (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals (-2.5) | Bengals (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Bills (-6.5) | Bills (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Giants | Cardinals (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Vikings (-10.5) | Dolphins (+10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons (+2.5) vs. Saints | Falcons (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Best ATS pick for Week 4
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 4.
Chargers vs. Seahawks (-7) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Los Angeles Chargers lost to the Buffalo Bills despite forcing five turnovers and sacking Josh Allen four times.
If they can’t keep a game close with a +4 turnover margin, what chance do they have against an angry Seattle Seahawks team hellbent on making amends after a bitterly disappointing loss to Washington?
The Chargers' offensive line has more holes than the mesh on a soccer goal, allowing Justin Herbert to be pressured at the fifth-highest rate (29.8%). Herbert has also been hit 13 times, tied with Joe Burrow and Jacoby Brissett for the fifth-most.
📡 SBR Edge - Chargers ghastly stats
The Chargers are 31st in EPA per play, 32nd in points added off motion, 24th in third-down conversion rate, third in giveaway rate, and 31st in EPA per rush.
🔥 More Week 4 picks
Chiefs vs. Raiders (+4.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
What’s not to like about the Raiders start? They are 3-0, scoring at least 26 points in each game. Their defense is a top-10 unit in DVOA, and they won two straight on the road.
And then there’s the 38-year-old Kirk Cousins, who is tied for the lead in TD passes (9) and has thrown only one interception. The Chiefs eventually pulled away from the Miami Dolphins last week. And while I expect the Chiefs to win, I’ve seen enough to back the Raiders to keep it close.
Lions (-3.5) vs. Panthers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jared Goff is one of six QBs in the first three games of a season to amass at least 800 passing yards, secure a completion rate of at least 70%, and not throw an interception. He, along with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, has led the Detroit Lions to the second-best offensive DVOA, scoring 31 points in three straight games.
The Panthers offense has also been excellent. However, injuries have hit the team hard, most notably to cornerback Jaycee Horn and wide receivers Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette.
Both receivers have a chance of returning against the Lions, but I like the Lions' chances of finally putting together a complete game.
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