Cubs vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: Game 2 NL Wild Card Odds (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
The Chicago Cubs are on the brink of elimination after being shut out 8-0 by the San Diego Padres in Game 1, and my Cubs vs. Padres prediction expects Chicago to aid in the scoring today to help the first five innings Over cash once again.
With a rested bullpen that didn’t use many of its top arms, my MLB picks also call for a short outing from Nick Pivetta, and for Fernando Tatis Jr. to stay hot at the plate. I cashed a +125 player prop wager on Tatis Jr's Over 1.5 total bases in his first at-bat yesterday.
First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 10 p.m. ET (NBCSN), and San Diego is a -140 moneyline betting favorite. Opposing Pivetta on the mound is Kevin Gausman.
⚾ Cubs vs. Padres picks & odds: NL Wild Card Game 2
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| First five innings Over 3.5 | -145 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 0.69 units |
| Nick Pivetta Under 14.5 outs | -120 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 0.83 units |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run | +350 via FanDuel | 0.25 units to win 0.88 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.4 units
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💰 Cubs vs. Padres prediction & best bet
First five innings Over 3.5 (-145)
San Diego seemingly took advantage of Chicago’s weariness from playing a doubleheader in Boston over the weekend and then having to fly to Tampa Bay to finish the series on Sunday. Now Chicago’s playoff hopes rest on Gausman’s arm, and the righty wasn’t a lock to start in this series after injuring his shoulder on Sept. 23.
Gausman has a 3.83 ERA in 14 career postseason appearances (eight starts), including a 2.93 ERA over six playoff outings in Toronto’s run to the World Series last year. But San Diego also ranked second in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year.
📡 SBR Edge: Scoring in bunches early
San Diego has cashed its team total Over in the first five innings in 17 of its last 21 games (+13.35 units/54% ROI).
🔥 Best Cubs vs. Padres player prop bet
Nick Pivetta Under 14.5 outs (-120)
Pivetta wasn’t on an innings limit in his last start as the team had plenty to play for. Still, he lasted only 4.2 innings despite throwing a season-high 87 pitches, and I expect the team to be cautious with him in just his fifth start back from a near five-month injury.
Pivetta earned the ball in Game 2 after posting a 1.45 ERA in his first four starts post-injury. But he only completed five innings twice, and now faces a Cubs lineup that led the Majors in wRC+.
In addition, the Padres only used two pitchers (Yuki Matsui and Joe Musgrove) in relief after Michael King’s brilliant seven-scoreless inning masterpiece yesterday. That means a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA among playoff teams that has former All-Stars Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller locked and loaded should be ready to go early and often.
💣 Cubs vs. Padres home run prediction
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+350)
The rest of the Padres lineup seemingly fed off of Tatis Jr.’s aggressiveness when he homered on the first pitch of the game yesterday, as the team swung at 10 of Matthew Boyd’s 11 pitches in the first inning.
I expect Tatis Jr. to again be comfortable at the dish today when facing Gausman, against whom he has a .348/.375/.652 slash line in 23 at-bats. Three of Tatis Jr.’s eight hits against the righty have gone for extra bases, including two home runs.
Gausman has had trouble keeping the ball in the park of late, allowing eight home runs in his last five starts spanning 27.1 innings.
📊 Live Cubs vs. Padres odds
Sixty-four percent of the early moneyline wagers have backed the Padres after yesterday's emphatic 8-0 victory. That betting split as well as the overall reaction to yesterday's lopsided win caused the line to drive as much as eight cents at DraftKings, who moved to San Diego -145 (59.18% implied odds) from an opening number of -137.
All of the best sports betting sites are now at an O/U of 7.5. DraftKings was originally the only one that opened slightly lower at 7 but bounced back and forth a couple of times between 7 and 7.5 before landing on the higher number. The betting splits support that movement, as two-thirds of the wagers backed the Over as of Wednesday morning.
🚑 Cubs vs. Padres injuries
📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Padres
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
- First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
- TV: NBCSN
- Streaming: Peacock
- Cubs starter: Kevin Gausman (Regular season: 9-12, 4.51 ERA)
- Padres starter: Nick Pivetta (Regular season: 3-2, 2.86 ERA)
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