Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: Game 2 NL Wild Card Odds (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
The Philadelphia Phillies have won their last two postseason series against the Atlanta Braves, but the Braves can exact revenge for the losses in 2022 and 2023 with another win today. My Phillies vs. Braves prediction eschews the moneyline odds and instead expects a pitcher's duel early between Cristopher Sanchez and Tyler Mahle.
My MLB picks also my favorite Bryce Harper player prop and a wager on a Braves hitter to homer even though Austin Riley hit the only long ball in Game 1. Philadelphia is a -120 betting favorite, and first pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, airing on NBC.
⚾ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds: NL Wild Card Game 2
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| First five innings Under 3.5 | -108 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| Bryce Harper Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | -127 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 0.79 units |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run | +470 via FanDuel | 0.25 units to win 1.18 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.9 units
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💰 Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet
First five innings Under 3.5 (-108)
Sanchez entered his last start with a troubling 44.3% hard-hit rate and .351 BABIP in his previous three September outings. But those concerns were remedied in a dominant final outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he recorded 10 strikeouts over seven innings and a league-wide 111 proStuff+ grade.
On the other side, Tyler Mahle has pitched to a 1.99 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in nine starts with the Braves.
I’m limiting this play to the first five innings because Philadelphia’s relievers pitched to a 4.60 ERA against Atlanta this year.
📡 SBR Edge: Struggling Phillies relievers
In September, three of Philadelphia's most trusted relievers (Alex McFarlane, Jose Alvarado, and Brooks Raley) all pitched to an ERA of 5.19 or worse over 21 combined innings.
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-127)
Harper hits in a prime RBI-generating spot in the Phillies lineup, but the problem is Philadelphia’s offense as a whole hasn’t been producing.
The Phillies were 29th or worse in September in batting average (.226), slugging (.356), OPS (.660), and runs per game (3.71). They also scored just 43 runs in 13 head-to-head meetings with the Braves.
Harper has slashed a respectable .278/.350/.500 with a home run in 18 at-bats against Mahle. But I’m counting on the Phillies not putting much traffic on the basepaths ahead of him, and that Atlanta’s relievers will be as successful as the 3.24 ERA they pitched to in the 13 head-to-head regular season matchups.
💣 Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction
Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+470)
In 13 regular season games this season against Philadelphia, Acuna Jr. slashed .380/.467/.680 with four home runs. In 108 career games in this NL East rivalry, he has a .308/.392/.526 slash line with 21 homers.
Acuna Jr.'s power numbers went through the roof once he got in a groove against high velocity. Against pitches 95-plus mph through August 22, Acuna Jr. batted .183 with a .268 slugging percentage and one home run on 315 such pitches. But since August 23, those numbers increased to a .382 batting average, .765 slugging percentage, and four home runs in that split.
Acuna Jr. has a 1.000 OPS and a home run in 16 career at-bats against Sanchez. He also could take half of his at-bats against a Phillies bullpen that had a 4.60 ERA in the 13 games against the Braves this year.
📊 Live Phillies vs. Braves odds
Bettors seemingly believe in Philadelphia's chances of evening the series after it was four outs away from taking Game 1. Despite the 5-3 loss on Tuesday, the Phillies drifted slightly from -115 to -118 at BetMGM while attracting 56% of the moneyline wagers.
As of Tuesday night, the total had not budged from any of the opening numbers at the best sports betting sites. FanDuel is the only shop with a slightly higher O/U of 7.5, while all others are at 7. With two-thirds of the early wagers backing the Over, it will be interesting to see if more align with FanDuel at 7.5.
🚑 Phillies vs. Braves injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Braves
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 30
- First pitch: 2 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
- Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (Regular season: 18-7, 2.91 ERA)
- Braves starter: Tyler Mahle (Regular season: 7-10, 3.99 ERA)
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