Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: Game 1 NL Wild Card Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 29
It's a rematch of the 2023 NLDS as the Phillies visit the Braves Tuesday for Game 1 of their National League Wild Card series. My Phillies vs. Braves prediction likes the value on the home side as Chris Sale draws the start for Atlanta.
My MLB picks include Braves -1.5 (+122), Bryce Harper Under 0.5 singles (-155), and Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+470). The Braves are a -200 betting favorite, with first pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta set for 2 p.m. ET (NBC).
โพ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds: NL Wild Card Game 1
See all of our expertsโ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Braves -1.5 | +122 via FanDuel | 1.64 units to win 2 units |
| Bryce Harper Under 0.5 singles | -155 via BetMGM | 1.55 units to win 1 unit |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 home runs | +470 via FanDuel | 0.21 units to win 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3.4 units | Max profit: 4 units
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๐ฐ Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Braves -1.5 (+122 via FanDuel)
While the Phillies have yet to announce a starter as of time of publish, it's hard to bet against Sale. The Braves left-hander has posted a 1.96 ERA across his last 24 starts (146 2/3 innings) and has won six of his last nine decisions.
The Phillies, meanwhile, needed a dominant performance from Zach Wheeler in their final game of the regular season to even make the playoffs. Philadelphia has lost four of its last five games by multiple runs. Braves -1.5 (+122 via FanDuel) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Score prediction: Braves 4, Phillies 2
📡 SBR Edge: Sale Since the Break
Opponents are slashing just .193/.233/.275 against Sale since the All-Star break.
๐ฅ Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet
Bryce Harper Under 0.5 singles (-155 via BetMGM)
Harper is just 2-for-21 in his career against Sale, with 11 strikeouts and no extra-base hits.
That's a .095/.095/.095 slash line, and it points to a larger problem Harper has been dealing with: He struggles against left-handed pitching. Harper is slashing .222/.328/.329 against lefties this season, and facing Sale, who ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value (35), isn't a great spot for the Phillies first baseman to improve on those splits.
Harper Under 0.5 singles (-155 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
๐ฃ Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+470 via FanDuel)
We don't yet know who the Phillies will start, but I highly doubt these +470 odds will be available at post, even if Cristopher Sanchez starts on short rest.
Acuna has been on a tear this month, slashing .307/.347/.602 in September with seven home runs. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495) and the 88th percentile in barrel rate (13%).
While there's uncertainty around starting pitching, his odds shouldn't be this long. Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+470 via FanDuel) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
๐ Live Phillies vs. Braves odds: NL Wild Card Game 1
The Braves opened as a -192 betting favorite at DraftKings Sunday evening.
Since then, Atlanta has gone to -205 at DK but is still available at -193 at Circa. So, I would say some money has come in on the Braves since open, but not enough to make a significant difference. As of time of publish, Pinnacle is taking $9,700 per side, so the limits are pretty decent, even though the Phillies have yet to announce a starter.
๐ Phillies vs. Braves injuries
๐บ How to watch Phillies vs. Braves: NL Wild Card Game 1
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- First pitch: 2 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: NBC
- Phillies starter: Undecided
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (Regular season: 14-9, 2.16 ERA)
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