Spain vs. Croatia Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tuesday's Nations League Match
Spain and Croatia both opened their Nations League campaigns with victories, but with the World Cup holders a prohibitive -500 moneyline betting favorite, I'm looking down the oddsboard to find my best Spain vs. Croatia prediction.
Play from Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in Sevilla, Spain, gets started at 2:45 p.m. ET on Tuesday. You can catch the action on FS1.
⚽ Spain vs. Croatia predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 corners | +110 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.55 units |
| Luka Vuskovic to commit 2+ fouls | +137 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.69 units |
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💰 Spain vs. Croatia best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Over 9.5 corners (+110)
Spain is going to have the bulk of the possession in this one, and their attacking structure should create the territorial pressure we need to cash this one. Spain's full-backs push high and it's wide attackers can isolate defenders, forcing Croatia into blocks and clearances. In particular, Lamine Yamal's ability to receive wide and drive into the box causes backs to collapse toward the ball.
Croatia, for the little attack they will have, is a team heavily reliant on width and crossing. Croatia produced six corners and had 28 crosses in their opener, and while I'm not backing them to reproduce those numbers against Spain, pitching in three or four here should be enough to get us over.
The +110 line is very appealing for a half-unit play, but any lower than +100 and this becomes a pass for me.
🆚 Who will win Spain vs. Croatia?
Spain will dominate in all facets of this game, and the Croatian team won't be able to keep up. Don't be fooled by what they did against Czechia in the opener. I don't see this one as particularly competitive at all.
Score prediction: Spain 2, Croatia 0
🔥 More Spain vs. Croatia expert picks
Luka Vuskovic to commit 2+ fouls (+137)
This isn't a market that I attack regularly, but I'm going to give it some attention in this game due to a combination of three factors: how this game is playing out in my mind, player history, and importantly, the ref.
Spain is going to dominate possession in this game, which spells trouble for Croatia's defenders. Yamal, Olmo, Baena, and Oyarzabal (or whichever combination of them is on the field) can rotate and attack spaces between the midfield and defense, creating difficult scenarios for the opposition. You step forward and get beat you're in trouble, you hold position and Spain runs you down toward goal.
The 19-year-old Vuskovic is averaging nearlay 1.5 fouls per 90 in domestic play this year with Brighton, and has been whistled for at least one foul in every non-friendly he's played with the national side.
The icing on top? Serdar Gözübüyük is a whistle-heavy ref, blowing for between 24-28 fouls per game in many of the top leagues he's reffed in (Eredivisie, Champions, WCQ, etc).
📊 Spain vs. Croatia odds
Odds from bet365 as of Sept. 28; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Spain (-500) | Draw (+650) | Croatia (+1200)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-211) | Under 2.5 (+160)
🆚 Spain vs. Croatia projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Spain vs. Croatia; subject to change:
| Spain (4-2-3-1) | Croatia (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Simon (GK) | Livakovic (GK) |
| Pubill (D) | Stanisic (D) |
| Cubarsi (D) | Vuskovic (D) |
| Laporte (D) | Gvardiol (D) |
| Cucurella (D) | Perisic (D) |
| Rodri (M) | Modric (M) |
| Pedri (M) | Kovacic (M) |
| Lamine Yamal (M) | L. Sucic (M) |
| Olmo (M) | P. Sucic (M) |
| Baena (M) | Ivanovic (M) |
| Oyarzabal (F) | Budimir (F) |
📺 How to watch Spain vs. Croatia
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium (Sevilla, Spain)
- TV/Streaming: FS1
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