England vs. Croatia Predictions & Odds: Nations League Picks (Nov. 12)
It doesn't look like it should be a tight game on paper, and my England vs. Croatia prediction breaks down exactly why the host's dominance is something we can target to find value below the moneyline on Thursday.
England is a prohibitive -450 moneyline betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Wembley Stadium in London at 2:45 p.m. ET. You can catch the game on Fubo.
England vs. Croatia predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| England Under 18.5 shots | -138 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.54 units |
| England to win to nil | +120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.6 units |
| Anthony Gordon 2+ shots on target | +175 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.49 units |
| Igor Matanovic 2+ shots | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.33 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 11 at 2:30 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.96 units
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England vs. Croatia best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
England Under 18.5 shots (-138 via bet365)
England can, and should, win this match comfortably without peppering Croatia all game. Their totals through the first four games are 13, 22, 19, and 17, and that 22 mark came against a Czech side that was reduced to 10 men midway through the first half; remove that game and they're at about 16.3 per game.
After they thumped Croatia 7-0 in the reverse fixture, getting just 19 shots away. I expect Croatia to do a better job of protecting central after's after that hammering, which should have England circulating possession instead of pushing back on an exposed defense. With England needing just a draw to qualify for the next round, and a matchup with Spain on the horizon, an england goal from the hosts could result in the urgency dropping as they focus on possession dominance and not relentless attacking.
Play to: -150
🆚 Who will win England vs. Croatia?
England will again control possession and create better chances with Gordon's runs and Kane operating centrally. Croatia will be focused on avoiding another embarrassing defeat, and they might have occasional chances through their productive center forward. That said, England should establish and protect a lead.
Score prediction: England 2, Croatia 0
More England vs. Croatia expert picks
England to win to nil (+120 via bet365)
At +120 we need this just 45.5% of the time to break even, and I'm willing to roll the dice on that happening at home after they won their last three Nations League games by a combined 12-0 score.
Croatia is missing some key attackers, as Ivan Perisic is suspended due to a red card, and Andrej Kramaric and Franjo Ivanovic have withdrawn. That reduces the visitors' attacking options and makes the task of building from the back even harder with England dominating the midfield. There are some concerns with England's defensive absences, but the price offers a reasonable return while backing the likely winners.
Play to: +120
Anthony Gordon 2+ shots on target (+175 via bet365)
Harry Kane gets the glory, and he'll be a major focus as he sets the record for England appearances. But Gordon is where the price shines, as he's had one, two, and four shots on target in his three Nations League appearances (and that four came against Croatia in the reverse fixture).
That's a small sample, and his 70% accuracy across those games will certainly regress, but this price needs only a ~36% success rate and I'm over 40% on this side. When Kane drops toward the midfield, drawing attention with him, Gordon is able to attack channels between the wing-back and center-back, receiving close to goal instead of relying on shots from distance.
Play to: +150
Igor Matanovic 2+ shots (-150 via bet365)
I don't see Croatia peppering England by any stretch, so while my attention was first drawn to the 3+ shots (+200) market, this is the safer route. Despite the world #14 team struggling in early tournament play, Matanovic has remained a key attacking figure, picking up three shots in 45 minutes in the reverse fixture and three shots in 65 minutes against Spain.
He's the focal point of direct passes and crosses, and England is without their first-choice backline with Guehi, Konsa, and Spence all missing action. These shots don't need to trouble Pickford, or even be on target, but in a situation where the visitors are chasing, he'll be inspired to try to get shots away.
Play to: -150
England vs. Croatia key stats
All stats below are for the Nations League unless otherwise noted.
| England | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0-1 | 1-0-3 |
| Goals for/game | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| xG/game | 2.93 | 1.18 |
| Goals against/game | 0.8 | 3.5 |
| xGA/game | 1.25 | 2.58 |
| Average possession | 60.4% | 39.3% |
England vs. Croatia odds
Odds from bet365 as of Nov. 11; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: England (-450) | Draw (+600) | Croatia (+1000)
- Total: Over 3.5 (+110) | Under 3.5 (-150)
England vs. Croatia projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for England vs. Croatia; subject to change:
| England (4-2-3-1) | Croatia (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Pickford (GK) | Livakovic (GK) |
| Quansah (D) | Stanisic (D) |
| Hill (D) | Vuskovic (D) |
| Burn (D) | Caleta-Car (D) |
| Hall (D) | Gvardiol (D) |
| Rice (M) | Modric (M) |
| Anderson (M) | Kovacic (M) |
| Ngumoha (M) | Vlasic (M) |
| Bellingham (M) | Pasalic (M) |
| Gordon (M) | Baturina (M) |
| Kane (F) | Matanovic (F) |
England vs. Croatia injuries
England:
- Djed Spence, muscle injury - out
- Marc Guehi, muscle injury - out (withdrew from squad)
- Ezri Konsa, knee - out
- Myles Lewis-Skelly - suspended (red card)
Croatia:
- Luka Sucic, illness - out
- Josip Sutalo, hamstring - out
- Kristijan Jakic, knee - out
- Franjo Ivanovic, head - doubtful
- Marin Pongracic, thigh - out
- Ivan Perisic - suspended (red card)
How to watch England vs. Croatia
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 12
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Wembley Stadium (London)
- TV/Streaming: Fubo
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