Italy vs. France Prediction, Picks & Odds for Thursday's Nations League Match
First and second-place teams in Group A square off at San Siro in Milan (2:45 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1), and I'm offering my Italy vs. France prediction for Thursday's Nations League match.
France are the -133 betting favorite despite playing on the road. Along with backing France to secure all three points, I've included a pair of player props featuring Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise.
Italy vs. France predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe anytime goal | -128 via BetMGM | 2 units to profit 1.56 units |
| France ML | -133 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.75 units |
| Michael Olise goal or assist | -130 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.77 units |
Picks submitted: Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 9:30 a.m. ET; odds subject to change
Total units bet: 4 | Maximum profit if all bets cash: 3.08 units
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Italy vs. France best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Kylian Mbappe anytime goal (-128)
While Mbappe didn't feature in the previous three Nations League matches due to injury, his recent goal-scoring record for club and country is unrivalled. He has 11 goals in the last nine matches with Le Bleus, including three in his previous two appearances.
His exploits for Real Madrid are just as jaw-dropping, as the superstar netted 17 goals in 16 appearances. He's in the midst of a four-game goal-scoring streak in La Liga, tallying six.
Mbappe has also scored in all four Champions League matches. I'm also drawn to the fact that Italy have conceded 8.4 expected goals. Only Croatia and Serbia have allowed more.
🆚 Who will win Italy vs. France?
I'm backing France to beat Italy 2-1. While Italy have been much better since Mancini took charge, they are allowing too many chances.
Score prediction: France 2 - 1 Italy
More Italy vs. France expert picks
France ML (-133)
France failed to beat Italy at home despite testing Gianluigi Donnarumma seven times. Had it not been for Donnarumma's heroics, France would have an unblemished record.
Les Bleus have been better defensively, too, allowing the second-fewest expected goals (4) while Italy will be missing Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean, and Roma defender Gianluca Mancini. Italy have struggled at San Siro recently, and France have the attacking threats to show clearly what separates these teams.
Michael Olise goal or assist (-130)
Olise is one of the in-form players in the world, and I expect him to showcase it again on Thursday. He has 12 goals and seven assists in 15 appearances for Bayern Munich. While Harry Kane helps increase his goal contributions at the club setup, Olise has Mbappe at his disposal on the international scene.
Olise enters on a five-game goal-or-assist streak with Le Bleus, scoring four and assisting twice. He exploded for two goals and an assist in France's last match, a 4-1 home win over Belgium.
Italy vs. France key stats
| Italy | France | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1-1 | 3-1-0 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-0-1/1-1-0 | 1-1-0/2-0-0 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WDWLW | WDWWL |
| Goals for | 8 | 7 |
| Goals against | 5 | 2 |
| Goals for (xGF) | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| Goals against (xGA) | 8.4 | 4 |
| Average possession | 45.6% | 64.7% |
Italy vs. France odds
Italy (+350) | France (-145) | Draw (+290)
Over 2.5 (-170) | Under (+138)
Italy vs. France projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Italy vs. France; subject to change:
| Italy (4-3-3) | France (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Donnarumma (GK) | Maignan (GK) |
| Kayode (D) | Gusto (D) |
| Scalvini (D) | Jacquet (D) |
| Bastoni (D) | Upamecano (D) |
| Calafiori (D) | Truffert(D) |
| Barella (M) | Cherki (M) |
| Tonali (M) | Tchouameni (M) |
| Doumbia (M) | Rabiot (M) |
| Vergara (F) | Olise (M) |
| P. Esposito (F) | Doue (M) |
| S. Esposito (F) | Mbappe (F) |
How to watch Italy vs. France
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 12
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
- TV/Streaming: FOX Sports 1
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