White Sox vs. Astros Prediction & Picks: Game 1 AL Wild Card Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 29
Both teams are expected to have a bullpen game Tuesday, and my White Sox vs. Astros prediction backs the underdog to win straight up in Game 1 of their American League Wild Card series.
My MLB picks fade the Astros as a -130 betting favorite with AJ Blubaugh on the mound. First pitch from Daikin Park in Houston is set for 5 p.m. ET (Peacock, NBCSN).
โพ White Sox vs. Astros picks & odds: AL Wild Card Game 1
See all of our expertsโ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox ML | +115 via Hard Rock Bet | 1.74 units to win 2 units |
| Jose Altuve Under 0.5 singles | -125 via BetMGM | 1.25 units to win 1 unit |
| Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 home runs | +400 via BetRivers | 0.25 units to win 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3.24 units | Max profit: +4 units
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๐ฐ White Sox vs. Astros prediction & best bet
White Sox ML (+115 via Hard Rock Bet)
With both teams likely having a bullpen game, I'm focusing more on how the offenses are projected to perform.
The White Sox rank ninth in MLB with a .318 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), tied with the Padres and Phillies, while the Astros rank 19th with a .311 xwOBA, tied with the Twins. While Yordan Alvarez won the AL batting title, he doesn't have enough around him to be a -130 betting favorite in a bullpen game against Chicago.
White Sox ML (+115 via Hard Rock Bet) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Score prediction: White Sox 5, Astros 4
📡 SBR Edge: Astros' Bullpen vs. White Sox Offense
The Astros' bullpen allowed the seventh-most HR/9 in MLB this season (1.24), while the White Sox offense hit the fifth-most homers (211).
๐ฅ Best White Sox vs. Astros player prop bet
Jose Altuve Under 0.5 singles (-125 via BetMGM)
While the White Sox have yet to announce a starter as of the time of publish, Erick Fedde is expected to pitch multiple innings.
Jose Altuve hasn't been great against right-handed pitching. The Astros second baseman is slashing just .239/.288/.384 against righties, compared to his .285/.362/.431 slash line against lefties. Altuve ranks in the 12th percentile with a .224 expected batting average, so we're getting a good price fading him in Game 1.
Altuve Under 0.5 singles (-125 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
๐ฃ White Sox vs. Astros home run prediction
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 home runs (+400 via BetRivers)
This is a great matchup for Munetaka Murakami. Blubaugh ranks in the eighth percentile in barrel rate (10.3%), while Murakami ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate as a hitter (20.5%).
Murakami already has a hit against Blubaugh in just two career at-bats, and while that hit was just a single, the combination of Murakami's power and Blubaugh's tendency to allow hard contact means we have a great price here.
Murakami Over 0.5 home runs (+400 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
๐ Live White Sox vs. Astros odds: AL Wild Card Game 1
The Astros opened as a -132 betting favorite at FanDuel Sunday evening. Houston has since moved to -130 on the moneyline, so while some money has come in on the White Sox, it's not enough to affect how I'm betting Game 1. Pinnacle is only taking $2,800 a side as of the time of publish, so we're still pretty early in the price discovery phase (since the White Sox haven't announced a starting pitcher/opener).
๐ White Sox vs. Astros injuries
๐บ How to watch White Sox vs. Astros: AL Wild Card Game 1
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- First pitch: 5 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston)
- TV: Peacock, NBCSN
- White Sox starter: Undecided
- Astros starter: AJ Blubaugh (5-3, 3.66 ERA)
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