Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: Game 1 AL Wild Card Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 29
One of the greatest rivalries in MLB will see another installment Tuesday, and my Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction backs the underdog in Game 1 of their American League Wild Card series.
The Red Sox have announced Payton Tolle as their starter, while the Yankees will send out Cam Schlittler. My MLB picks fade the Yankees as a -156 betting favorite, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., set for 8 p.m. ET (NBC).
โพ Red Sox vs. Yankees picks & odds: AL Wild Card Game 1
See all of our expertsโ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox ML | +132 via FanDuel | 1.52 units to win 2 units |
| Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 singles | -150 via BetMGM | 1.5 units to win 1 unit |
| Roman Anthony Over 0.5 home runs | +660 via DraftKings | 0.15 units to win 1 unit |
Total wagered: 3.17 units | Max profit: +4 units
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๐ฐ Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Red Sox ML (+132 via FanDuel)
The Red Sox are being undervalued in this spot.
Tolle has won each of his last five decisions and is arguably having his best month of the season. He has a 1.53 ERA in September, and the Red Sox have won four of his last five starts. I'm not pretending that Tolle is as good a pitcher as Schlitter, but the gap isn't as wide as these odds imply. Tolle has allowed just one earned run across 13 innings against the Yankees this season.
Red Sox ML (+132 via FanDuel) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Score prediction: Red Sox 4, Yankees 3
📡 SBR Edge: Nobody's Rakin' vs. Payton
Current Yankees hitters are slashing just .125/.152/.219 against Tolle across 32 career at-bats.
๐ฅ Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop bet
Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 singles (-150 via BetMGM)
These -150 odds are too good to pass up considering Luis Garcia Jr. isn't the same hitter when he faces lefties. The Yankees first baseman is slashing .244/.287/.366 against left-handed pitchers, compared to his .283/.314/.551 slash line against righties.
While he has never faced Tolle - so we don't have head-to-head splits to factor into this price - Garcia is arguably having his worst month of the season, slashing just .229/.250/.343 in September. Garcia Under 0.5 singles (-150 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
๐ฃ Red Sox vs. Yankees home run prediction
Roman Anthony Over 0.5 home runs (+660 via DraftKings)
Roman Anthony has only had 242 plate appearances this season, so his season-long totals won't look that impressive. However, he's been trending upward since the All-Star break, slashing .262/.321/.476 in that span.
While Schlittler is a tough matchup for anybody, he throws fastballs 88.4% of the time to left-handed hitters. That's great for Anthony, as he has a .563 expected slugging percentage against that pitch type. Anthony Over 0.5 home runs (+660 via DraftKings) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
๐ Live Red Sox vs. Yankees odds: AL Wild Card Game 1
The Yankees opened as a -140 betting favorite at an offshore sportsbook Sunday morning. New York is now a -150 betting favorite at that sportsbook but is still just -143 at Circa. So, while some money has come in on the Yankees overall, it's not enough that I would let it affect my betting. Pinnacle is taking $15,000 per side on this game at the time of publish.
๐ Red Sox vs. Yankees injuries
๐บ How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees: AL Wild Card Game 1
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- TV: NBC
- Red Sox starter: Payton Tolle (Regular season: 9-6, 3.03 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (Regular season: 14-6, 1.95 ERA)
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