⚾ WBC MVP Odds & Predictions: Can Heavily Favored Judge Rise Above Ohtani?
A whole lot of questions we've had for weeks about the WBC are about to start getting answers, and the WBC MVP odds sit high among the intriguing markets.
The tournament begins late tonight at 10 p.m. ET when Chinese Taipei clashes with Australia, and there are two imposing sluggers unsurprisingly leading the MVP oddsboard: Aaron Judge at +750 betting odds, and Shohei Ohtani at +1100.
Will the MVP be one of the favorites? Or can a dark horse emerge? Let's dive in as part of our World Baseball Classic expert picks.
🏆 Who will be named WBC MVP?
Not only is Judge a fair distance ahead of Ohtani, but he's alone as the only player getting odds below +1000. He's tallied 50-plus homers in three of the past four seasons, even belting 37 during an injury-plagued 2023 campaign. The New York Yankees outfielder has also taken the equivalent MVP award in the American League three times since 2022.
Judge is one of 10 members of Team USA featured in the top 20 on the oddsboard, including four in the top five. The Americans are loaded while leading the World Baseball Classic odds to win the tournament at -110, with Japan a distant second at +380.
However, Ohtani leads that Japanese squad after already winning the second-most MLB MVP awards ever, earning four over the past five years. But as astounding as his performances are in MLB, the defending WBC MVP won't be pitching in this tournament, which in part leads to him being notably behind Judge.
That's also significant because although Judge and Ohtani are the only two below +1500 betting odds, pitchers have historically dominated the WBC MVP honor.
📊 WBC MVP odds
Our World Baseball Classic predictions 2026 are locking in on Team USA prevailing.
| Player | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Paul Skenes | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Bryce Harper | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Kyle Schwarber | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Logan Webb | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Juan Soto | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Cal Raleigh | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Byron Buxton | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Munetaka Murakami | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Roman Anthony | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
🥇 WBC MVP prediction
Sure, Ohtani excelling as both a hitter and pitcher is always a cheat code, with the latter skill propping him up that much further in any MVP race. But Ohtani to win any hardware of this nature at +1100 is eye-popping stuff.
The MVP needs to erupt over a short period, and Ohtani has shown repeatedly he's capable of doing that and more. He recorded a .333 batting average while slugging .778 during the World Series this past fall, with three home runs and three doubles.
Better yet, here's what he did on the same WBC stage in 2023 before being named MVP.
Shohei Ohtani's 2023 WBC stats
| Games | Home runs | Average | RBIs | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1 | .435 | 8 | 1.345 |
WBC MVP best bet: Shohei Ohtani to win WBC MVP (+1100 via BetMGM)
👀 WBC MVP long shot
Please also recall what Ohtani's teammate both in the WBC and on the Los Angeles Dodgers did during the World Series.
That's when Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed just two earned runs across 17 2/3 innings while striking out 15 batters and giving up a measly 12 baserunners. That led to an easy decision to name him the World Series MVP, and he later finished third in Cy Young odds voting after posting a 2.49 ERA (second-best in the NL).
Of course, there's a difference between the midseason form of any pitcher and what we may see here in March when they're not fully stretched out. But any fear regarding that is more than baked into these lengthy odds, as is also the case with workload concerns.
WBC MVP long shot bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto to win WBC MVP (+3000 via BetMGM)
📈 WBC MVP betting insights
Here are some betting insights into the WBC MVP market just prior to the tournament beginning, with the action coming from BetMGM.
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % |
|---|---|
| 1. Bobby Witt Jr. (23.8%) | 1. Bobby Witt Jr. (26%) |
| 2. Juan Soto (10.5%) | 2. Cristopher Sanchez (12.8%) |
| 3. Shohei Ohtani (8.6%) | 3. Juan Soto (11.5%) |
| 4. Roman Anthony (7.6%) | 4. Roman Anthony (9.9%) |
| 5. Aaron Judge (6.7%) | 5. Aaron Judge (5.7%) |
📜 Past WBC MVP winners
There still isn't a ton of tournament history to look back on and draw anything from, as only the sixth edition is about to start.
But it's still clear that even amid light workloads in mid March and shorter appearances, pitchers can rise to the top of this tourney fast if they shine brightly during their limited time.
| MVP | Position | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | DH/RHP | 2023 |
| Marcus Stroman | RHP | 2017 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 2013 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | RHP | 2009 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | RHP | 2006 |
💰 WBC MVP best bets
Looking for more WBC picks? Head over to our WBC AI predictions 2026.
| Best bet | Odds (via BetMGM) |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to win WBC MVP | +1100 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto to win WBC MVP | +3000 |
❓ WBC MVP FAQs
Who is the favorite to be named the WBC MVP?
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is the favorite to be named the WBC MVP while getting +750 betting odds from BetMGM.
Who was the last WBC MVP?
Shohei Ohtani was named the MVP of the last tournament in 2023. Ohtani is now getting the second-best odds at +1100.
When is the WBC?
The 2026 WBC runs from March 4 to March 11.
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