⚾ USA vs. Canada Predictions & Odds: WBC 2026 Betting Picks Today

I would like nothing more than to suggest the underdogs are going to pull off the upset with my USA vs. Canada predictions, but that would be irresponsible to our readers.

The fact is, Team USA is a -900 betting favorite for a reason, and I think it can cover a lofty 4.5 run line in this quarterfinal showdown tonight at 8 p.m. at Daikin Park.

Canada will send Mike Soroka to the mound, who's been a generally terrible pitcher since suffering multiple injuries a handful of years ago. Meanwhile, USA will send NL Cy Young candidate Logan Webb to the hill. Do you see where this is going? Hey, they'll never be able to take our Pool A title away from us.

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⚾ USA vs. Canada WBC predictions: Today, 8 p.m. ET

Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for today's USA vs. Canada matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

Total wagered: 4.33 units | Max profit: 5.32 units

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💰 USA vs. Canada best bet

USA -4.5 (-125)

I bet this myself yesterday, and I think it's probably my best bet of the quarterfinals. I don't like betting against my own country, but Canada has been set up for failure here. It played both Tuesday and Wednesday in Puerto Rico, and had to travel to Houston from there.

Waiting already in Houston was Team USA, which last played Tuesday and has had an embarrassing 48 hours since. I think USA takes out all of its frustration on Soroka and the Canadian relievers in a lopsided victory, hovering around 8-2 or 9-2.

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🔥 Best USA vs. Canada player props

Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ hits (+175)

Bobby Witt Jr. was my pre-tournament WBC MVP pick, and so far, so good.

He's batting .357 and has been a demon both on the basepaths and on defense. He hits leadoff in the USA lineup, so he should get plenty of opportunities to rip a couple of base knocks.

One interesting wrinkle to handicapping USA hitters is that Canada has really leaned on left-hander James Paxton in the middle innings during the WBC. If it does so again, Witt has a massive advantage, as he batted .328 against southpaws last season, the ninth-highest average in the league.

Logan Webb 5+ strikeouts  (-140)

This bet is book-specific. If you don't have a bet365 account, I'd go bet Webb to record six-plus strikeouts at FanDuel at +128.

However, this is an absurd pricing error by bet365. Let's look at how some of our other best sports betting sites price Webb to record five-plus strikeouts:

• DraftKings: -225
• FanDuel: -176
• BetMGM: -185

Generally, we see odds that are very unfavorable to the bettor in these one-way markets, but that's not the case here. Also, strangely, bet365 has nuked its own batter hits market, as it offers Witt 2+ hits at -170 (YES, MINUS). 

I'm not sure what's going on here, but I'd bet on this Webb strikeout total before it's too late. I also think Webb serves as an interesting ladder candidate for this game, so let's take a look at how high we can take his strikeout total, and where the best odds are.

🤑 USA vs. Canada player prop: Logan Webb strikeout ladder

• 6+ (+150 via bet365)
• 7+ (+280 via bet365)
• 8+ (+500 via bet365)

A reminder that Webb can throw up to 80 pitches in this one, and he racked up six Ks in his first start during only four innings against Brazil.

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💣 USA vs. Canada home run prediction

Gunnar Henderson home run (+360)

The obvious downside of this one is it's entirely possible the worst manager in baseball, Mark DeRosa, benches Gunnar Henderson again. I was really confused why DeRosa kept benching someone who I believe is a legitimate AL MVP candidate this season, and then the last 48 hours happened. Now it makes sense.

However, if he doesn't start, this bet will be void. If he does, it's all systems go. Henderson has been a monster when he's allowed to play, recording a .500 average to go along with a homer and three RBIs. 

It's a tiny sample size, but Henderson also has a homer off Soroka in his career.

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🚀 USA vs. Canada same-game parlay

I'm parlaying an alternate run line with the Over and a couple of player props for our USA vs. Canada SGP at DraftKings. The odds are relatively long, so be sure to limit your wager size.  

💵 Best USA vs. Canada parlay bet

• USA -2.5 (-288)
• Over 9.5 (-120)
• Bobby Witt 2+ hits (+175)
• Logan Webb 5+ strikeouts (-225)

Best odds: +525 via DraftKings (0.25u -> 1.56u)

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💵 My betting record for the WBC

All baseball picks have been tracked since the start of the World Baseball Classic on March 4

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⚖️ How I'm betting USA vs. Canada

I've been practicing pretty strong bankroll management throughout the tournament, but with the field down to eight teams, I'm treating this similarly to how I am the South Korea-Dominican Republic game and wagering more. However, I understand if you want to be more conservative.

In that case, the advice I'd give is pick one between the spread and Over on the total, and put a unit on that. And then you can do the same for Witt or Webb. Or, you can ignore the game bets all together and bet only the player props, or vice versa. Add those with a wager of 0.2 to 0.33 units on the Henderson homer.

That way, you can limit your overall stake on this game to around 2.25 units. But, I also have no problem dropping the entire 4.33 on this game. It comes down to personal comfort levels at this point.

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📊 USA vs. Canada odds & analysis

Here are the World Baseball Classic odds for USA vs. Canada today via DraftKings:

The odds at DraftKings for USA to win outright are -900, and I'd leave the moneyline alone overall. At DraftKings, bettors are all over the favorites in what's widely expected to be a higher-scoring game. We're seeing 90% of the moneyline bets being placed on the favorites, 91% of the bets for the total on the Over, and 72% of the run line bets on the USA to cover -1.5. As of noon ET, bettors are all over the favorites.

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🆚 USA vs. Canada starting pitchers & projected lineups

Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for tonight's USA vs. Canada matchup:

Key players to watch

USA - Aaron Judge: This has been an embarrassing week for Team USA, and the captain needs to step up tonight amid all of that. I'm looking for him to set the tone early with something loud against Soroka.

Canada - Owen Caissie: Caissie crushed the ball during pool play, but will he look overmatched against a Cy Young contender tonight?

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📺 How to watch USA vs. Canada

• When: Friday, March 13
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Daikin Park (Houston, Texas)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: Fubo

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❓ USA vs. Canada World Baseball Classic FAQ

Here's what people are asking about USA vs. Canada today:

Who is the favorite in USA vs. Canada?

USA is the favorite to win, with odds hovering around -900.

What time is the USA vs. Canada WBC game?

This game will start at 8 p.m. ET.

Who are the starting pitchers for USA vs. Canada?

USA will send Logan Webb to the mound, while Canada will go with Mike Soroka.

Where can I watch the USA vs. Canada WBC game?

You can watch this game on FOX or stream it on Fubo.

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