⚾ Tigers vs. Twins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, April 9

The Detroit Tigers look to avoid a four-game sweep when facing the Minnesota Twins at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). Jack Flaherty is in search of his first career win in his fifth start against Minnesota, while the Twins counter with Mick Abel in just his 13th career appearance and 10th career start. The Tigers are a -135 betting favorite.

My Tigers vs. Twins prediction passes on the idea of picking a winner for our MLB picks and instead expects a slugfest in a game with two struggling pitchers. That should lead to a big day offensively for players on both sides, with Gleyber Torres being the focus of my top player prop wager, and Trevor Larnach as my best bet to hit a home run.

⚾ Tigers vs. Twins picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.46 units

🏆 Who will win Tigers vs. Twins?

Detroit has been 8-5 against Minnesota in two of the last three seasons, and had a winning record against everyone in the AL Central except Cleveland last year. That’s why I expect the Tigers to take this series finale while building momentum heading into a home series with the Marlins this weekend.

Score prediction: Tigers 6, Twins 4

💰 Tigers vs. Twins prediction & best bet

Over 8 (-114)

Jack Flaherty has made just two starts this year, but didn’t record more than 13 outs in either, as four walks in each has led to inflated pitch counts. Flaherty was already showing signs of regression after his WHIP increased from 1.068 in 2024 to 1.280 last year.

On paper, Flaherty has solid career numbers against current Twins hitters, allowing a .232/.268/.450 slash line in 82 at-bats. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the righty allowed six runs on eight hits in just 4 ⅔ innings in his only start against Minnesota last year.

🔥 Best Tigers vs. Twins player prop bet

Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 runs (+120)

Gleyber Torres is on pace to see his on-base percentage increase for the third straight season, with his .393 on-base percentage set to shatter his previous career-high of .358 last year.

Torres became much less of a free swinger last year, as he cut down his strikeout rate by 25.7% from 2024. He already drew 12 walks through his first 11 games, and his 23.5% walk rate makes up for his relatively low 27.6% hard-hit rate and 0.93 GB/FB ratio this year.

Those metrics are why I’m not keen on other Torres props like his total bases (+135 for the Over of 1.5) or RBIs (+180 for Over 0.5), but I do expect him to find his way on base and add to his run total, just like when he averaged 83 runs per season over the last three years.

💣 Tigers vs. Twins home run prediction

Trevor Larnach to hit a home run (+950)

Though Minnesota entered this series with the second-lowest OPS from its 2-3-4 hitters, it has a great chance to improve upon these numbers despite Flaherty not surrendering a home run in 8 ⅓ innings this year.

Larnach is 2-for-3 with a home run in a small sample size against Flaherty. The righty’s 37.5% line drive rate allowed is on pace to be a career-worst, and that suggests regression is coming with regards to Flaherty’s elite 12.5% fly ball rate allowed to this point.

Larnach has struck out just 5% of the time this year, and is paying off that contact with his highest career launch angle and launch angle sweet spot percentage to this point.  

🚀 Tigers vs. Twins same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay feed the same narrative that I expect this series to conclude with a slugfest. I am swapping Trevor Larnach's home run odds for a safer batter prop for this parlay.

Byron Buxton was an All-Star who finished 11th in the MVP voting last year. Buxton should overcome Flaherty's high ground ball rate, as his .807 career OPS against ground ball pitchers is higher than his split against more traditional fly ball pitchers, or those who have an average fly ball to ground ball ratio.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Tigers vs. Twins: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

My betting approach to this game is consistent with what I've done since Opening Day, which has led to overall profits, including player props. I always devote less of my bankroll (0.25 units at most) to the less dependable home run props, but have no issue getting more aggressive on other player props, like the Torres runs scored wager that stands to turn a nice profit.

There are several other sportsbooks where one can back the Over of 8.5 at plus-money odds. I prefer the more conservative approach with the lower number, gladly taking a push if the total lands exactly on eight runs instead of needing nine-plus to cash my bet.

📊 Live Tigers vs. Twins odds

Detroit is anywhere from a -134 to -143 moneyline favorite while garnering 60% of the early wagers. The fact that Minnesota has won the first three games of this series while beating the Tigers' two best pitchers (Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez) in the process should result in the line shading towards the Twins before first pitch.

While our best sports betting sites are in unison on an O/U of 8, with the Over juiced as high as -115, several have already lowered from opening numbers of 8.5. Fifty-eight percent of the early wagers are on the Over, and that's likely not enough to force a return to 8.5 throughout the morning.

📈 Tigers vs. Twins betting trends

🚑 Tigers vs. Twins injuries

📺 How to watch Tigers vs. Twins

• Date: Thursday, April 9
• First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Target Field (Minneapolis)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Tigers starter: Jack Flaherty (0-1, 7.56 ERA)
• Twins starter: Mick Abel (0-2, 11.05 ERA)