Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Odds & Expert Picks for Sept. 28

While the Boston Red Sox have locked up one of the AL’s wild card spots, the Detroit Tigers still have a chance to win the AL Central and host a first-round playoff game, and those scenarios are driving my Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction. First pitch is set for 3:05 p.m. ET (Local TV) on Sunday afternoon from Fenway Park in Boston, with Detroit the -130 betting favorite.

For my MLB picks, I am backing a quiet day from Boston’s offense knowing some key starters may be resting with not much at stake.

📊 Tigers vs. Red Sox odds

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⚾ Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions

MLB expert picks based on odds that are subject to change.

• Game pick: Tigers ML (-126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 9 (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Team prop bet: Red Sox Under 4.5 runs (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Tigers vs. Red Sox expert pick

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🐯 Tigers ML (-126) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit blew a 3-0 lead in Friday’s loss, but rebounded with a 2-1 victory yesterday to clinch at least a wild-card spot. While the Tigers have not won consecutive games since Sept. 9-10 and are just 3-12 over that span, I expect them to play with urgency knowing they are one win and a Cleveland Guardians loss away from the division title and No. 3 seed in the AL playoffs.

Meanwhile, Boston is comfortably in the playoffs for the first time since 2021, and its result today only matters for seeding. The Red Sox can be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed depending on today’s results, but will be on the road in the Wild Card round no matter what.

That all adds up to Detroit’s moneyline being my top Tigers vs. Red Sox expert pick at 55.75% implied odds. Through FanDuel’s -126 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $17.94.

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💰 Tigers vs. Red Sox prop bet

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⬇️ Red Sox team total Under 4.5 (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given how many people were out of the lineup yesterday, I was expecting the O/U for Boston’s team total to be as low as 3.5. The Red Sox may have some of their starters in today’s lineup so as not to give them too much time off before Tuesday, but there is no telling if they will play the whole game, or just get a couple of at-bats.

Boston’s lineup was without its home run and RBI leader (Story) and leader in WAR and total bases (Duran) yesterday, so bettors will want to see if they are out of the lineup again.

Either way, expecting Boston to total at least five runs when it has done so just once in its last six games is a tall task, especially when it is not likely to have its full complement of players. I am also banking on Tigers righty Chris Paddack allowing three or fewer earned runs for the fifth consecutive start.

Through DraftKings’ -140 odds (carrying a 58.33% implied probability), a $10 winning wager would net $7.14 in profits.

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