⚾ Detroit Tigers MLB Futures Bets 2026: Are Skubal, Valdez Enough to Win AL Central?
Fans and bettors alike are expecting a bounce-back season from the Detroit Tigers, who experienced a monumental collapse during the second half of the 2025 campaign and almost missed out on a playoff spot. They lost the division as a result, and I'm not exactly running to bet on them to win it this year with my Tigers predictions and AL Central picks.
Despite my hesitation, the Tigers are pretty heavy favorites to win the AL Central this year thanks to their addition of perennial Cy Young contender Framber Valdez, who joins forces with the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal, to form a deadly 1-2 punch for Detroit. Is that enough, though, to fend off a Kansas City Royals team on the rise?
🐯 How you should bet on the Tigers in MLB futures markets
Personally, I'd pass on Tigers team futures for the regular season and go directly to their World Series odds if I wanted to back them. I don't love their chances to win the AL Central, and they feel mispriced as relatively significant favorites.
Additionally, you can also attack various players futures markets instead of betting on the entire team. Here's how I'd approach it.
Tigers to win World Series
Among our best sports betting sites, Caesars has the best odds on the Tigers to win the World Series at +2800 (3.45% implied probability). I like this bet more than taking the Tigers to win the AL Central for multiple reasons.
I believe the addition of Valdez does much more for the Tigers in the postseason than it does in the regular season. Of course, he'll play a significant role during the 162-game campaign, but it's the fact that the Tigers would have two legitimate aces in the postseason that would interest me most. Look at how they stack up against some of the other playoff contenders in the American League, with World Series odds via DraftKings:
| Team (World Series odds) | Ace | No. 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Tigers (+2500) | Tarik Skubal | Framber Valdez |
| Yankees (+1000) | Max Fried | Gerrit Cole |
| Mariners (+1300) | Bryan Woo | Logan Gilbert |
| Blue Jays (+1400) | Dylan Cease | Kevin Gausman |
| Red Sox (+1500) | Garrett Crochet | Ranger Suarez |
| Orioles (+2200) | Trevor Rogers | Kyle Bradish |
There's not a single 1-2 combination in the AL better than what the Tigers can trot out in the postseason. The only teams that compare to what the Tigers have are the Dodgers (take your pick of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell) and maybe the Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler).
That's a massive boost to their chances to win any playoff series, so that's what I'm most interested in.
The second reason I like this bet is because we're getting a slight edge when we compare both FanGraphs' (5.8%) and PECOTA's (3.5%) projections for the Tigers to win the World Series against the implied probability associated with these odds (3.45%).
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AL Cy Young
Skubal is understandably a fairly significant favorite to win his third straight AL Cy Young Award, and I actually looked at his chances of winning AL MVP in my MLB awards long-shot bets.
I feel the same about Skubal as I do Paul Skenes, which is I'm planning to wait until he emerges from the World Baseball Classic (in his limited time there) and spring training with no injuries and then likely firing him up as my full-unit AL Cy Young bet.
Much like Skenes, Skubal is just quite easily the best pitcher in the AL. He has a worthy contender in Garrett Crochet, but peak Skubal has thus far shown to have no equal. And I think he could be getting better somehow.
🔥 Tarik Skubal over the years (2022-2025)
- Average fastball velocity: 94.2 -> 95.8 -> 97 -> 97.7
- ERA: 3.52 -> 2.80 -> 2.39 -> 2.21
- Pitching run value: 78th percentile -> 93rd -> 100th -> 100th
- fWAR: 2.9 -> 3.3 -> 6.0 -> 6.6
AL Rookie of the Year
I discussed Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle in my look at the MLB rookies to know before spring training, and he's looked solid in six plate appearances across three games. I'm a bit concerned about whether he'll start the season in the minors or with the major-league team, so I'm going to leave him alone in the AL Rookie of the Year market for now, since his odds are still relatively short.
However, I'm going to continue tracking his progress throughout the spring, and he could be a candidate for the Opening Day roster if a Tigers infielder gets hurt or severely outperformed by the rookie. But we're taking a wait-and-see approach with McGonigle.
💰 AL Central picks: Bets I've made on this division
| Market | Bet | Wager size | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win totals | White Sox Over 66.5 wins (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Win totals | Twins Over 73.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| To make playoffs | Royals (+160 via Caesars) | 1 unit | Feb. 17 |
| Home run leader | Vinnie Pasquantino (+10000 via Caesars) | 0.2 units | Feb. 18 |
As you can see, I'm on a pair of MLB win totals sleeper picks in the AL Central and the Royals to make the playoffs, plus an important hitter to serve as one of the 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season.
I'm fading the Tigers to win the division at their current odds, which are sitting at +120 at DraftKings. I can't get behind them at that price, especially when one of the leading projection models has them finishing second in the AL Central.
🔢 Royals vs. Tigers 2026 projections (via PECOTA)
- Royals: 85.2-76.8, 49.5% chance of winning the division
- Tigers: 83-79, 33.7% chance of winning the division
PECOTA also gives the Royals a 64.4% chance of making the playoffs, which is why I bet them at +160 (38.46% implied probability).
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