Royals vs. Padres Prediction, Player Props & Odds: Expert Picks for June 21

Can the Royals move over .500 with a second consecutive win over the Friars?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 21, 2025 1:00 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Royals vs. Padres Prediction & Player Props: Best MLB Expert Picks for June 21 — Pictured: Kansas City Royals right fielder Jac Caglianone rounds the bases after hitting a home run. Photo by Jerome Miron via Imagn Images.

The Kansas City Royals look to move over .500 with a second consecutive win against the San Diego Padres in the middle game of their three-game series. First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX).

Our Royals vs. Padres prediction and player props find value in the total, while our top wager calls for positive regression for Kansas City rookie Jac Caglianone.

💰 Best Royals vs. Padres predictions & player props tonight

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✅ Under 7.5 (-118 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Jac Caglianone to record 2+ total bases (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾️ Under 7.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Fernando Tatis Jr. was in San Diego’s lineup one day after being plunked repeatedly in the Dodgers series, the Royals held the Padres catalyst hitless in the series opener.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has won four straight games for the first time since it had a seven-game winning streak from May 3-9. Its dominant pitching played a big part in the streak, allowing just five total runs over the first three games, and two by last night’s starter, Michael Lorenzen.

I also expect a dominant pitching performance from Padres righty Dylan Cease. His ERA is 3.00 in seven home starts compared to 6.26 in eight starts on the road. He gets a nice reprieve with an unfamiliar opponent tonight after facing three consecutive divisional rivals, including the relentless Dodgers lineup in back-to-back starts.

The Under has cashed in four of San Diego’s last five interleague home games, and provides better value than backing the steep moneyline odds against a surging Royals team. I predict San Diego will beat Kansas City by a final score of Padres 4, Royals 2.

BetMGM is the only of our best sports betting sites offering better than -120 juice to back the Under.

✅ Best odds: Under 7.5 (-118 via BetMGM)

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🤖 Royals vs. Padres AI score prediction: Padres 5, Royals 3

(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events)

🖥️ AI predictions for Royals vs. Padres

AI says the projected final score is Padres 5, Royals 3.

Win probability: Royals 44% | Padres 56%
Projected total runs: 8
Key takeaways:

Home Advantage & Momentum: San Diego is comfortably playing in familiar Petco Park conditions, and its offense has been clicking at home.
Royals' Solid Pitching vs. Padres' Balanced Attack: Kansas City's staff ranks among the best in the AL in ERA and WHIP, which helps it stay competitive. But Petco Park’s spacious outfield will neutralize the Royals’ edge against San Diego’s strong contact-based lineup led by Luis Arráez.
Weather Conditions: Partly sunny skies and mid‑60s temps make for a pitcher’s evening - limiting long balls and keeping it a tight contest.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward San Diego covering the spread (-1.5) and a total of Over 7.5 runs.

1️⃣ Royals vs. Padres first-inning prediction: YRFI (+100 via BetMGM)

The YRFI is 8-1 in Kansas City’s last nine games as road underdogs. It cashed last night when Bobby Witt Jr. started the scoring with a solo home run in the first inning. I am backing this wager through BetMGM’s plus-money odds despite being on the full-game Under.

🔥 Jac Caglianone to record 2+ total bases ⭐⭐⭐

Based on Caglianone’s splits between his actual and expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA to this point, positive regression should be coming for the Royals rookie.

Entering the series opener, Caglianone was batting .218 with a .364 slugging percentage and .259 wOBA. Those numbers were 109, 223, and 134 points lower, respectively, than his expected numbers. And the differences in his slugging and wOBA were the fourth-largest for any batter in the majors since June 3 (min. 40 PA).

Caglianone has reached this total in back-to-back games, which equals the number of times he did it in the first 13 games of his career. I am riding his hot streak, and opting for the better payout than the -135 odds at bet365 for him to record just one total base.

✅ Best odds: +200 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $20)

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🔥 Best Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cease has recorded seven-plus strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. But his ceiling for strikeouts is much lower when facing a Royals lineup that entered this series tied for the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (17.8%).

Cease has also not been very economical with his pitch count lately, recording 15 or fewer outs in four of his last five starts.

This wager still aligns with our belief in the full-game Under, considering Kansas City ranks just 20th in BABIP against righties. I am making this play at FanDuel, the only top sports betting site that has the Under juiced less than -115.

✅ Best odds: -104 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.62)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”