Best Red Sox vs. Yankees Player Prop Picks for the AL Wild-Card Round Game 1 Tonight
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox open their postseason action tonight, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., set for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). My best Red Sox vs. Yankees player props for the AL wild-card round Game 1 analyze the clash of division rivals, who are meeting for the sixth time in the postseason.
New York is a -130 moneyline betting favorite while sitting fourth in the World Series odds, but they only went 4-9 against Boston this season, and that does factor into our MLB Picks. My player prop wagers for our MLB picks focus on a trio of superstars: Garrett Crochet, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger.
⚾ Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player props
MLB player prop bets for AL Wild-Card round Game 1; odds subject to change.
- Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases (-148 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 RBI (+220 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
💰 Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop picks
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (+102) ⭐⭐⭐
Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has logged three games with double-digit strikeouts since the calendar turned to August, and two came against the Yankees. Overall, Crochet is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and .601 OPS allowed in four starts against New York this season.
Crochet recorded 18-plus outs in all four of those outings, and he's been given a 61.24% implied probability through DraftKings’ -158 odds to do so again. The southpaw has also thrown three career postseason innings, with six of the nine outs coming via the strikeout.
However, I'm making a contrarian play on this Under since Tuesday's game will be his first career postseason start in what will be a raucous Yankee Stadium environment. And after ranking in the bottom 10 for most of the year in strikeout rate during home games against left-handed pitching, the Yankees sat in the top half of the league in that metric during September.
The Under is getting as high as 50.98% implied odds through Caesars’ -104 price. But FanDuel provides the best return for this wager, as it's alone among our best sports betting sites while offering plus-money odds, and a $10 winning wager would net $10.20 in profit.
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⬇️ Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases (-148) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aaron Judge became the first player in MLB history to win a batting title and hit 50-plus home runs in the same season. Though he led the majors in on-base percentage, slugging, wOBA, wOPS, wRC+, and fWAR, his postseason struggles have been well-documented.
Judge has slashed just .205/.318/.450 across 58 career playoff games. He's also just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts in his career against Crochet. Though two of those hits have been home runs, I'm fading Judge’s chances of going deep in this game when facing a pitcher who has allowed five or fewer hits in each of his previous four starts.
Adding to this four-star play is the fact that Judge led the league with 36 intentional walks, and free passes don't count toward a player’s total bases. The -149 odds at DraftKings carry a 59.68% implied probability, and a $10 winning wager if Judge were to end up with one or fewer total bases would return $6.76 in profit.
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⬆️ Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 RBI (+220) ⭐⭐⭐
It may seem blasphemous to back a left-handed hitter’s player props when facing Crochet, as the southpaw has allowed a .166/.193/.262 slash line to left-handed batters this season. But Cody Bellinger has put up decent enough career numbers against Crochet that I feel confident making this one of my best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop wagers.
Bellinger is 5-for-14 with a home run in his career against Crochet. He also raked against left-handed pitchers this year while slashing .353/.415/.601, making him and Judge the only Yankees with an OPS of 1.000 or better in that split (minimum 30 AB).
The outfielder finished the regular season with just one RBI across his final 10 games. But this is a great price considering his career success against Crochet, and when facing lefties all season.
A $10 winning wager at the 31.25% implied odds through FanDuel would net $22 in profit.
📊 Red Sox vs. Yankees odds
Latest MLB odds updated live in real time.
📺️How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees
When: Tuesday, Sept. 30,
First pitch: 6:08 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium (New York)
TV: ESPN
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