Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can Philadelphia Complete Sweep?
The All-Star break came at the worst time for the Boston Red Sox, who've cooled off considerably since then thanks to first the Chicago Cubs and now the Philadelphia Phillies. Our Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction expects the home favorites to complete the sweep tonight.
With losses in four of their last five games, the Red Sox finish this series at Citizens Bank Park tonight, with first pitch expected for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Boston, while Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for the home team, and he plays a major role in our Red Sox vs. Phillies best bets.
- Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction: Phillies to win (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player props: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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✅ Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction: Phillies moneyline (-148 via FanDuel)
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Luzardo kicked off the campaign looking like an NL Cy Young contender, but his walk issues have reared their head during the last two months. However, the left-hander still has very impressive peripheral stats, and I expect him to have a strong start tonight.
The Red Sox rank in the bottom half of the league in walk rate, and they've been really impatient during July. Their 6.6% walk rate is the fifth-lowest in baseball, showing that their season-long mark is still buoyed by Rafael Devers' numbers with the team.
Cristopher Sanchez diced up the Red Sox last night, and though he's a better pitcher than Luzardo, I don't expect the Red Sox to have much more success tonight.
Additionally, following that game, the Phillies' bullpen should be rested. So even if Luzardo is able to go only five innings, Rob Thomson will have all his best arms available to follow him.
The Phillies served as much more significant favorites the last two games with Sanchez and Zack Wheeler on the mound before him. Though I don't think they have as much of a pitching advantage tonight, I think they should be trading at odds hovering around -175 on the moneyline for this one.
💰 Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player props
✅ Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player prop: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 via Caesars)
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I bet on Schwarber two nights ago and he went hitless. Then, I didn't bet on him last night and he hit a home run. So ... buyer beware, I guess?
In all seriousness, Schwarber continues to serve as one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball. He's hit three homers following his heroic performance in the All-Star Game, and he's up to nine in the last 30 days (86 at-bats).
The slugger often needs only one hit to cash this prop thanks to a strong top half of the Phillies' lineup. I expect that to be the case once again tonight against Giolito, who's xERA is nearly a full run-and-a-half higher than his ERA (5.06 compared to 3.59).
Giolito's opponent xBA ranks in just the 11th percentile, while his average exit velocity is in the 15th percentile. He's simply not good, and he hasn't been since 2021.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.
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