⚾ Red Sox vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, April 10
Boston is off to a rocky start to the 2026 campaign, but it can right the ship against a St. Louis team that's not as good as its record suggests, and my Red Sox vs. Cardinals prediction expect complete domination from the road team.
The Red Sox are hovering around -140 betting favorites for this one, with one getting underway at 8:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. Connelly Early will take the hill for the Red Sox, while Dustin May will start for the Cardinals.
Along with this game, I've been making MLB picks all day, including my best MLB player props.
⚾ Red Sox vs. Cardinals picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox moneyline (-140 via Caesars) | 1u → 1.71u | Visitors should attack May early and take the lead |
| Connelly Early Over 15.5 outs (+107 via Caesars) | 0.4u → 0.83u | Threw 88 pitches in last start |
| Wilyer Abreu home run (+590 via FanDuel) | 0.33u → 2.28u | One of the hottest hitters in the league |
Total wagered: 1.73 units | Max profit: 3.09 units
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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Cardinals?
I'll get more into it below, but the Red Sox should have the advantage in every facet of the game ... at least, on paper. I like Early to easily have a better performance than May, and that should set the tone early for a decisive Red Sox win.
Score prediction: Red Sox 8, Cardinals 3
💰 Red Sox vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-140)
The reality is that May stinks. He owns a 15.95 ERA through two starts, during which he's lasted only 7 1/3 innings. He joined the Red Sox ahead of last year's trade deadline and was pitiful, so this team should know how easy it is to hit him around. May ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA, seventh percentile in average exit velocity, and the fourth percentile in xBA. He is, without a doubt, one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
I think by the time he's out of the game, this one will already be over, and I think the Red Sox should be closer to -200 favorites.
📡 SBR Edge: Bet on talent, not record, this early in the season
The Cardinals aren't as good as their record suggests, and the Red Sox aren't as bad as theirs. Based on projected WAR for the rest of the season, the Red Sox are still among the elite teams, while the Cardinals are projected as one of the worst teams.
🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Cardinals player prop bet
Connelly Early Over 15.5 outs (+107)
Early got up to 88 pitches in his last start, which bodes well for his ability to go five-plus today.
One of the reasons I actually like this bet is because the Cardinals don't really strike out against lefties. If they put the ball in player early in counts more often, Early should be able to get deeper into this game, as long as they don't hit him around.
He's projected for just more than 5 1/3 innings, so the fact that we're getting plus money on this is very enticing.
Dustin Saracini is backing a pair of AL East pitchers with his best NRFI bets today.
💣 Red Sox vs. Cardinals home run prediction
Wilyer Abreu home run (+590)
Wilyer Abreu has been one of baseball's best hitters to start the year, and, as I mentioned, May is atrocious in basically every way. He doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a ton of walks, and he allows homers for fun.
The Red Sox are struggling to start the season, but Abreu already has three homers, and he has one of the best projections today. Based on his outlook, we're getting nearly 60% +EV on this one.
I featured Abreu as one of my top bets in my best home run predictions today.
🚀 Red Sox vs. Cardinals same-game parlay
I'm combining the two players I've bet on in this game and parlaying them with the Red Sox moneyline. The implied probability of these odds is 6.67%, so I'm going with just 0.1 units on this one.
💵 Dodgers vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay today
- Red Sox moneyline (-143)
- Connelly Early Over 15.5 outs (+106)
- Wilyer Abreu home run (+557)
Best odds: +1400 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 1.5u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-78 | -15.91 units ❌ | -32.1% ❌ |
| Home runs | 5-34 | -4.33 units ❌ | -35.1% ❌ |
| Strikeouts | 11-19 | -7.92 units ❌ | -27.5% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-17 | -0.46 units ❌ | -27.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Cardinals: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets and 0.33 units on my of home run bets, which you can also find on X.
If a player prop bet doesn't quite meet my criteria but still looks good, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units. The same goes for my home run bets, as I'll drop my wager from 0.33 units to 0.20.
I continue to tinker with my process as the season progresses. The more information you have, the better, but you also don't want to get buried in numbers and forget what you know about the sport. That's something I'm still working through even now after years of finding success with baseball betting.
📊 Live Red Sox vs. Cardinals odds
I'm riding with the public on this one, as 67% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are also on the Red Sox. They're priced at -143 there, while the longest odds are -140. Meanwhile, the total for this game is set at 7.5, and the majority of bettors at DraftKings are riding with the Over, which makes sense considering May is on the mound.
📈 Red Sox vs. Cardinals betting trends
| Red Sox | Statistic | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L record | 7-5 |
| 3-9 | Run line record | 6-5 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 6-5 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 4.19 | Team ERA | 4.95 |
| .226 | Team batting avg. | .226 |
| .666 | OPS | .685 |
🚑 Red Sox vs. Cardinals injuries
📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Cardinals
- Date: Friday, April 10
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
- TV: NESN, Cardinals TV
- Streaming: MLB TV
- Red Sox starter: Connelly Early (0-0, 2.89 ERA)
- Cardinals starter: Dustin May (0-2, 15.95 ERA)
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