Pirates vs. Cubs Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Back Chicago to Light Up Burrows

The Chicago Cubs have been left in the dust for now in the National League Central, but there is still plenty at stake when they host the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates from Wrigley Field at 2:20 p.m. ET (FS1). We break it all down with our Pirates vs. Cubs predictions.

A day after losing the series opener as a big favorite, Chicago is an even bigger -230 moneyline favorite at our best sports betting sites, and our Pirates vs. Cubs best bets are not afraid to get a little creative to return maximum value.

⚾ Pirates vs. Cubs predictions & odds

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💰 Pirates vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

✅ Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Cubs -1.5 (-113 via FanDuel)

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Chicago is a disappointing 10-14 since the All-Star break, but has beaten up on poor teams all year, with a 31-17 record against teams under .500. That includes a 5-3 head-to-head record against Pittsburgh, and is why I am backing Chicago’s runline with my Pirates vs. Cubs predictions.

Pittsburgh has not covered the runline in five of its last six games against divisional opponents. It is also in its worst hitting split, facing a southpaw, as it is 9-17 against left-handed starting pitchers. That means Shota Imanaga has a real chance to dominate this matchup, just like he did when he pitched five scoreless innings in a win against Pittsburgh in April.

Chicago has lost both of Imanaga’s starts against NL Central opponents in August. But laying the 1.5 runs is still my Pirates vs. Cubs best bet, as Pittsburgh will have trouble keeping up with Chicago’s top-five offense with Oneil Cruz sidelined due to a concussion.

The Cubs’ moneyline odds were bet up from -220 to -230 or higher overnight at most of our best sports betting apps. Therefore, the best value for Cubs backers lies in the runline, especially at FanDuel, the best sportsbooks with a price less than -115 to side with the favorites.

💰 Best Pirates vs. Cubs player prop

✅ Best Pirates vs. Cubs player prop: Mike Burrows Over 2.5 earned runs (-120 via DraftKings)

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While there are no head-to-head props for this wager, it is mind-boggling that Mike Burrows and Shota Imanaga have the same Over/Under of 2.5 for earned runs allowed, with Burrows’ Over juiced slightly higher than Imanaga’s -115 odds. Thus, this is a great way to double down on Chicago’s runline by backing the Over on Burrows’ earned runs as my best Pirates vs. Cubs player prop.

I expect the Cubs to jump on Burrows early, as Pittsburgh has allowed eight-plus runs in four of his previous six starts. 

Despite the Under cashing in six straight games, Chicago has been favored over Pittsburgh, the full game Over/Under of nine runs suggests the wind should be carrying out of Wrigley Field in this afternoon's tilt. That makes this a great value play for Burrow to go over this projected total for the third consecutive start.

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