⚾ Pirates vs. Astros Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 4)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the more surprising teams in the National League, but they enter tonight’s matchup looking to bounce back after blowing a late lead in an 11-9 loss to the Houston Astros on Wednesday. Pittsburgh held a four-run advantage entering the eighth inning before Houston erupted for six runs and completed a dramatic comeback.

The series continues tonight at Daikin Park, with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET on FS1. The projected pitching matchup via the prediction market apps features Jared Jones for Pittsburgh against Kai-Wei Teng for Houston. Jones has struggled in limited action this season, while Teng has been one of Houston’s most reliable starters, giving the Astros a notable edge on the mound.

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🏆 Who will win Pirates vs. Astros? Live MLB win probability

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter tonight’s matchup after a frustrating 11-9 loss on Wednesday, a game in which they carried a four-run lead into the eighth inning before the bullpen collapsed. Pittsburgh has still been one of the better surprises in baseball this season, sitting at 33-29, but the market appears concerned about the starting pitching matchup. Jared Jones gets the ball despite carrying a 10.38 ERA through his first 4.1 innings this year, creating some skepticism around Pittsburgh’s chances.

The Houston Astros have underperformed relative to expectations at 28-35, but they have momentum after Wednesday’s comeback victory. Kai-Wei Teng has been a bright spot, posting a 2.57 ERA across 42 innings, and his edge over Jones is the primary reason traders have backed Houston.

The prediction outcome market has attracted solid interest, while comparable prediction markets have generated roughly $38,000 in trading volume entering first pitch. Houston currently sits around a 51% favorite after opening closer to a coin flip. The move toward the Astros is almost entirely driven by the Teng-versus-Jones pitching discrepancy, and the current win expectancy aligns with what most models would project from that matchup.

My prediction: Pirates win. The Pirates can pull the upset if their lineup continues to generate early offense and Jared Jones settles in, giving Pittsburgh a chance to capitalize on Houston's inconsistent play throughout the season.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Pirates vs. Astros?

There should be plenty of opportunities for home runs in tonight’s matchup between the Pirates and Astros. My favorite target is Oneil Cruz, who carries an implied 17% chance to go deep. Cruz possesses elite power and can change a game with one swing, making him an intriguing option in the home run market. I also expect a strong performance from Pirates starter Jared Jones, which is why I’m focusing primarily on Pittsburgh hitters. While Yordan Alvarez is the overall favorite to homer tonight at 25%, Jones has the stuff to limit Houston’s power, making the Pirates’ side more appealing from a betting perspective.

My prediction: Oneil Cruz to hit a home run. [1-2 sentences.] For more home run analysis, see the rest of our [home run predictions today] (OR) [Visitor vs. Host home run predictions] from our MLB expert [WRITER].

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Pirates vs. Astros?

For the YRFI/NRFI prediction market, I lean toward NRFI in tonight’s Pirates vs. Astros matchup. While both lineups feature dangerous power bats, the market appears to be respecting the starting pitching more than the offensive upside. Jared Jones has electric stuff when he is commanding the zone, and Kai-Wei Teng has been one of Houston’s most consistent starters this season. Both pitchers have the ability to miss bats early and avoid big innings. With traders pricing this as a relatively balanced matchup, I expect a cautious first inning and would back the NRFI market to cash tonight.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Both Jared Jones and Kai-Wei Teng have the swing-and-miss stuff needed to navigate the top of the order, making a scoreless first inning a strong possibility. With the market expecting a relatively low-scoring game early, backing the NRFI provides value if both starters establish command right out of the gate.

📊 Pirates vs. Astros win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Pirates vs. Astros

• Date: Thursday, June 4
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston, TX)
• TV: MLB.TV
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Pirates starter: Jared Jones (0-0, 10.38 ERA)
• [Home] starter: Kai-Wei Teng (3-3, 2.57 ERA)