⚾ Why You Should Bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates: Team Futures, Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin
Imagine someone told you only a few years ago that the Pittsburgh Pirates would enter spring training as one of baseball's most interesting and exciting teams. Well, I'm here to tell you that's exactly the case in 2026, as I deliver my best MLB win totals sleeper picks and predictions and also tell you why you need to be betting on Pirates futures now in February.
Not only have I already bet on the Pirates to go Over their win total this season, but I'm also closely monitoring various Pirates-related futures markets at the best sports betting sites. Let's take a closer look at the Pirates, as well as some other sleeper picks in the MLB win totals market.
💰 MLB win totals sleeper picks: Teams I've bet to go Over their total
| Bet | Wager size | Date |
|---|---|---|
| Rockies Over 52.5 wins (-115 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| White Sox Over 66.5 wins (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Marlins Over 72.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Twins Over 73.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Athletics Over 75.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Pirates Over 76.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
| Rays Over 76.5 (+100 via FanDuel) | 1 unit | Feb. 14 |
In general, I prefer to play only Overs in the MLB win total market each season. It's not for a lack of edges on Unders, but I find it both easier to project teams to go Over and less stressful to track throughout the season.
Therefore, you could probably consider any of these teams "sleepers." None of them have a win total set at higher than 77 games, and when you get past public perception, you realize these teams are better than they're getting credit for. That's especially applicable to the Pirates.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏴☠️ Why you should bet on the Pirates in MLB futures markets
I'm targeting the Pirates and their players across various MLB futures markets. As you've seen, I already bet on them to go Over their win total, but I'm also tracking Paul Skenes in the NL Cy Young market, Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler in NL Rookie of the Year, and Pittsburgh to shock everyone and win the division.
Pirates Over 78.5 wins
I bet this two weeks ago at 76.5, and it's already jumped two wins. See what I mean about the 2026 Pirates? The hype is real.
Though all of our best sports betting sites have the total at the same number, FanDuel offers the best odds for the Over at -104. You can definitely still play this Over, but I'd be lying if I said it wasn't getting a bit tight at this point. Here's how two of the major models project the Pirates' 2026 season to go:
| FanGraphs | PECOTA |
|---|---|
| 82-80 | 80.3-81.7 |
Pirates to win NL Central
If that win total gets any higher, I'd pivot right to the Pirates winning the division. FanDuel prices them at +650 to do so, but DraftKings is offering a much tastier +800.
FanGraphs projects the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central with only 85 wins compared to Pittsburgh's 82, so you can see the gap between them and the Pirates is small. PECOTA is a bit more bullish on the Cubs, so I'll land somewhere in the middle. I think the Cubs are the favorites to win the division for a reason, but the pricing error here, in my mind, is that the Pirates are being listed as the fourth-biggest favorites.
I believe this team has the talent to quite easily be the second-best team in the division. These odds could shorten to reflect that if Pittsburgh keeps mashing in spring training, so you may want to bet this sooner rather than later.
I wrote more about this in my five MLB futures bets to make during spring training.
NL Cy Young
Skenes is a fairly significant favorite to win his second straight NL Cy Young - and third straight major award after being crowned the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. The best odds on a Skenes repeat are +250 at both FanDuel and Caesars.
I'll likely wait to make sure the big righty emerges from the World Baseball Classic unscathed (as far as injuries go), and then fire this up as my full-unit NL Cy Young bet as long as the odds remain around this point. Skenes is just so much better than every other pitcher in the NL, and you can see that from the leading projection models' fWAR rankings:
| Player | Steamer | THEBAT | Depth Charts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Chris Sale | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Logan Webb | 4.1 | 5.1 | 4.5 |
You could also target Skenes in the NL MVP race, which I discussed in my MLB awards long-shot bets.
NL Rookie of the Year
The Pirates feature two NL Rookie of the Year candidates in Griffin and Chandler, with the former trading as a heavy favorite after crushing two homers in his most recent spring training game. However, I think his odds have gotten too short - the best price is +325 at Caesars - at this point in the MLB schedule.
Basically, you shouldn't bet these odds unless you think from this point on, Griffin will not take a single step back. That means no early season struggles for a 19-year-old, him beginning the season in the majors, and also no other rookie looking "better" than him. I can accept that in certain markets like either Cy Young race or even the MVP races to an extent. But rookies are so volatile, so I think the best move now is to wait for a better price.
As far as Chandler goes, he does intrigue me at odds hovering around +1200. I think it's very likely we see him start the season in the majors (he's currently projected to serve as the fourth starter in the Pirates' rotation), and though rookie pitchers are always a little sketchy, I feel like that's baked into the price.
I examined both players in more depth in my look at the MLB rookies to know before spring training.
Related Articles
