Phillies vs. Reds Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Will Philadelphia Spoil Greene’s Return?
Hunter Greene makes his first start after a long IL stint for the Cincinnati Reds, who look to win the rubber match of a three-game series when hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 5:10 p.m. ET (NBCSP, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio), and our Phillies vs. Reds prediction breaks down this series finale.
Philadelphia is a -140 moneyline favorite despite facing Cincinnati’s ace, and our Phillies vs. Reds best bets believe that means big days are in store for Phillies Cy Young Award contender Cristopher Sanchez and MVP hopeful Kyle Schwarber.
⚾ Phillies vs. Reds prediction & odds
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💰 Phillies vs. Reds prediction & best bet
✅ Phillies vs. Reds prediction: Phillies to win (-135 via bet365)
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Sanchez rises to the occasion when facing MLB’s best teams. Philadelphia has won each of his last five starts (and seven of the previous eight) against teams currently holding a winning record, and the southpaw is the biggest reason for backing the moneyline with my Phillies vs. Reds prediction.
Philadelphia entered yesterday having won seven of its last eight games while pulling a season-high six games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. And with a left-hander on the mound while facing a righty, those splits factor heavily into my Phillies vs. Reds best bet.
The Phillies are the only team in baseball that is 24 games over .500 against right-handed starting pitchers (54-30), while the Reds are four games under .500 (16-20) against lefties. And Cincinnati is not just facing any lefty today, as Sanchez is one of three pitchers since the start of last season to throw at least 300 innings and pitch to a 2.90 ERA or better.
If Hunter Greene were not coming off a more than nine-week layoff, I would be more inclined to support Cincinnati. But with the rust factor looming, these -135 betting odds are justified at bet365. It’s also the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back Philadelphia at better than -138 odds.
💰 Best Phillies vs. Reds player prop
✅ Best Phillies vs. Reds player prop: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+160 via DraftKings)
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Schwarber's 42nd home run in Monday's series-opening win was his 26th in 94 career games against Cincinnati - his most against any opponent. I am backing the lefty slugger to add to that total once again with my best Phillies vs. Reds player prop.
Schwarber made history in other ways Monday, as the home run was his 173rd as a Phillie, tying him for third-most all time in a player’s first four seasons with a franchise.
One of Greene’s biggest weaknesses is his propensity for serving up long balls. He allowed nine in 59 2/3 innings before landing on the IL, and that HR/9 rate is in line with the 1.7 and 1.5 rates in his first two big-league seasons, respectively.
Greene has allowed seven of his nine home runs to left-handed batters (in just 10 more at-bats), so that makes these +160 odds enticing. Schwarber’s implied probability to hit a home run is as high as 40.82% through Caesars’ +145 odds. But by making this wager at DraftKings, a $10 winning wager would net $16 in profits compared to $14.50 at Caesars.
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