Phillies vs. Nationals Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Back Schwarber To Go Yard

We're offering our picks for this morning's Phillies vs. Nationals game, backing Kyle Schwarber to go yard for the 44th time.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 17, 2025 7:17 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Phillies vs. Nationals Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Sunday, Aug 17 — Pictured: Kyle Schwarber rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run as we offer our Phillies vs. Nationals Predictions. Photo by Geoff Burke via Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals get the MLB spotlight all to themselves with an early 11:35 a.m. ET (Roku) first pitch from Nationals Park as we break down this series finale with our Phillies vs. Nationals prediction.

Philadelphia ranges from -165 to -180 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting sites.

Our Phillies vs. Nationals best bets back its team total with too many unknowns about how starting pitcher Aaron Nola will perform in his first start back from injury.

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💰 Phillies vs. Nationals prediction & best bet

✅ Phillies vs. Nationals prediction: Phillies team total Over 5.5 (-104 via FanDuel)

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Philadelphia is too steep a favorite in a game where its starting pitcher is making his first start in over three months.

But with Washington trotting out one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season, we are eschewing Philadelphia’s moneyline and backing the Over on its team total with our Phillies vs. Nationals prediction.

The Phillies may be just 16-20 against left-handed starting pitchers, but Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker’s 5.55 ERA is the second-worst among all qualified starters.

With Parker on the mound, Philadelphia should improve its top-11 ranking in wRC+ (it is ninth in that metric since July 1), making this a confident Phillies vs. Nationals best bet despite its offensive struggles of late.

The Phillies have scored five or more runs just once in the last eight games, but Parker ranks in the second percentile in xBA and the lowest percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.

Our best sports betting apps are tipping their hand that Philadelphia is in for a big day offensively, as FanDuel has its team total Over 4.5 runs juiced to -178, carrying a 64.03% implied probability.

💰 Best Phillies vs. Nationals player prop

✅ Best Phillies vs. Nationals player prop: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+200 via FanDuel)

Schwarber has already turned in his third straight 100-RBI season and is now two home runs shy of his third season of 45-plus home runs in the last four years. I expect him to inch closer to that mark with a long ball this afternoon as my best Phillies vs. Nationals player prop.

Schwarber is consistent against both left and right-handed pitchers, hitting for power more consistently against lefties. Schwarber has hit a home run every 9.9 at-bats this season against southpaws versus every 11 at-bats against righties.

These are great odds considering Parker has allowed at least one home run in three straight starts, and multiple home runs in three of 11 (including twice at home). A winning $10 wager would yield $20 in profits.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”