Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 4

The Philadelphia Phillies are the road underdogs for today's game, but Mike Spector expects them to come up big in the series decider.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 4, 2025 7:43 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 4 — Pictured: Freddy Peralta delivers a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo by Dan Hamilton via Imagn Images

After splitting the first two games of the three-game series, the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers look for a series victory, and I break down this matchup featuring the National League's best teams in my Phillies vs. Brewers prediction.

The Brewers are a -125 moneyline favorite, but I find more value in the first five innings Under, with two red-hot starting pitchers as part of my MLB picks.

This Phillies-Brewers series finale kicks off Thursday’s MLB slate with the first pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).

⚾ Phillies vs. Brewers expert picks & predictions

MLB expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Phillies (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Phillies +1.5 (-194 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: First five innings Under 4.5 (-154 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📝 Phillies vs. Brewers preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ First five innings Under 4.5 (-154) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is definitely a risky proposition backing the Under in a game with two teams who have combined for 27 runs in the series thus far, and who rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored.

That is why I am limiting this Phillies vs. Brewers best bet to just the first five innings, as I expect both Ranger Suarez and Freddy Peralta to keep up the momentum they have recently generated.

Peralta made history in August as the only pitcher in the modern era to record at least 30 strikeouts over 25-plus innings pitched, while also allowing fewer than 12 hits and one or fewer runs for an entire month.

The Brewers ace finished August with a .117 OBA and a 31.8% strikeout rate, and his 0.32 ERA was the lowest of any pitcher who threw at least 25 innings since 2002.

I also expect Suarez to match zeros early with Peralta after he rebounded well from two rocky starts in early August.

Suarez has made seven starts this season against teams currently occupying a playoff spot, and six of the seven have been quality starts, pitching to a 2.12 ERA. That includes allowing one earned run over six innings against the Brewers in a June 1 start, where he also induced 17 ground balls.

Those who do not want to pay the steeper -154 price at a 60.63% implied probability can get plus-money odds for this wager (+114 at DraftKings) for an O/U of 3.5. But I prefer the comfort of the extra run, and a $10 winning wager for this game prop would still net $6.49 in profits.

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💰 Best Phillies vs. Brewers player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Ranger Suarez Under 1.5 walks (-155) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Suarez entered August with a streak of nine consecutive starts issuing at least one walk, and also walked multiple batters five times in that span. But he has gotten his control issues straightened out of late, which is why I am backing the Under on his projected walks total with my best Phillies vs. Brewers player prop bet.

Suarez has only walked one batter in his last 18 ⅔ innings, spanning three starts. Most impressively, his two starts in that stretch where he did not walk a single batter were also when he recorded double-digit strikeouts for the first two times this season.

In the seven starts Suarez has made against likely playoff teams, he has pitched to a 43:7 K:BB ratio. And the fact that he did not walk a batter while only recording two strikeouts in his first start against Milwaukee gives me more confidence for this wager, as it suggests Brewers hitters are aggressive early in the count against the southpaw.

bet365 is one of the only best sports betting sites that offers an O/U for pitcher walks, but I am happy to place a $10 wager at these odds with a 60.78% implied probability in the hopes of returning a $6.45 profit.

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📊 Phillies vs. Brewers odds: Sept. 4

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Phillies vs. Brewers betting odds analysis

Milwaukee opened as a -130 moneyline betting favorite. BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps higher on the Brewers at the moment (-135 odds), as the others range from -122 to -127. DraftKings offers an O/U of 8.0, as the others at 7.5 are all juiced between -115 and -130 to the Over.

🔢 Phillies vs. Brewers stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Phillies (80-59)	Statistic (per game)	Brewers (86-54)
4.78	Runs	5.12
8.78	Hits	8.83
.258	AVG	.259
.424	SLG	.409
.751	OPS	.742
3.78	ERA	3.61
9.15	K/9	8.72
2.72	BB/9	3.29
1.07	HR/9	1.06

🚑 Phillies vs. Brewers injuries

📺 Phillies vs. Brewers game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 4
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where: American Family Field (Milwaukee)
How to watch: MLBN

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Phillies vs. Brewers FAQs

Who is favored to win Phillies vs. Brewers?

The Brewers are the -125 betting favorite to beat the Phillies at home on Thursday.

What is the run line for Phillies vs. Brewers?

Philadelphia’s +1.5 odds are at -200 on the high end of the market, while Milwaukee’s -1.5 odds range from +160 to +165.

What is the Over/Under for Phillies vs. Brewers?

The top sports betting sites have the O/U set at 7.5 runs, juiced to -120 to the Over and +100 to the Under.

What are the best bets for Phillies vs. Brewers?

My Phillies vs. Brewers best bets back the first five innings Under, with Ranger Suarez going under his projected walks total.

When is the Phillies vs. Brewers game?

The Phillies vs. Brewers first pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET, airing on MLBN.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”