Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 Picks, Predictions: Familiarity Between Division Rivals

Top MLB picks for Game 1 of the NLDS between the Phillies and Braves.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 11, 2022 4:20 AM EDT • 4 minute read

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves renew their NL East rivalry in the Division Series. Read on for our Phillies-Braves MLB picks.

The Phillies and Braves meet in the postseason for just the second time ever, and first since Philadelphia beat Atlanta in the 1993 NLCS. The Braves are appearing in the NLDS for the fifth consecutive season.

Here are our MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s Game 1 between the Phillies and Braves (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Phillies vs. Braves Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 11, 1:07 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Weather: 75 degrees, 12% chance of precipitation, 9-mph E wind

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Phillies vs. Braves Odds Analysis

Atlanta ranges from as low as -190 moneyline favorites to as high as -205. The Braves are the more popular side, attracting 80% of the bets and 85% of the handle.

All sportsbooks are in unison with a total of seven runs. The Over has attracted 57% of the bets and 62% of the cash.

Phillies vs. Braves Projected Pitchers

Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

Ranger Suarez is coming off his first full season as a starting pitcher after joining the Phillies rotation for 12 starts (39 total appearances) last year. As a result, Suarez threw a career-high 155.1 innings, and his numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, H/9, FIP, HR/9, K/9) are all worse than last season. However, he showed good strike-zone command, ranking eighth in the league with 58 walks.

Braves southpaw Max Fried finished with an identical 14-7 record as last season, but his ERA was more than a half-run lower, and he was rewarded with his first All-Star game appearance this year. Fried finished the regular season second in BB/9, third in K:BB ratio, eighth in WHIP, ninth in innings pitched, and 10th in WAR.

Phillies vs. Braves Picks

Phillies vs. Braves ML Pick

Phillies +1.5 (-135) ★★

The Braves earned the right to six days off after winning 101 games in the regular season. However, baseball is a game of rhythm, and though the Phillies can no longer trot out Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola in Game 1, getting an early taste of postseason experience in the two games in St. Louis is not necessarily a bad thing. In addition, though Atlanta finished 14 games ahead of Philadelphia in the standings, the Braves didn't exactly dominate the Phillies this year, going 11-8 in their head-to-head matchups.

The Phillies were much more successful against left-handed starting pitchers than righties this season, going 28-18 against southpaws and 59-57 against righties. Outfielder Nick Castellanos finished the regular season with a .263 batting average but was on fire over the last two months, batting .310 since the beginning of August. He and rookie Bryson Stott topped a .300 batting average in that span and are surrounded by four other Phillies with a 123 OPS+ or better.

Do not overlook the underdogs in Game 1, especially one that will have no fear of Atlanta, having faced their rival 19 times already this season.

Phillies vs. Braves O/U Pick

Under 7 (+102) ★★★

If the Phillies are going to cover the runline in this game, their scoring will most likely come in the later innings, given how dominant Fried has been. Fried does not allow hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel percentage. In addition, he has an elite chase rate (91st percentile) and an xSLG of .328, the second-lowest of his career.

We also expect Suarez to match zeros with Fried, as he has held current Braves to a .219/.299/.353 slash line. He has allowed eight extra-base hits in 105 plate appearances and has more strikeouts (24) than hits allowed (23).

Phillies vs. Braves Prop Pick

Realmuto to record an RBI (+200) ★★★

Catcher J.T. Realmuto is 12-for-36 with a .694 slugging and 1.028 OPS against Fried. Half of the 12 hits have gone for extra bases (three of them home runs), and he slashed .318/.348/.545 in his last 22 at-bats to end the regular season.

Though he only had two RBIs in that span, his solid numbers suggest positive regression is coming from a run-producing standpoint.

Where to Bet on Phillies vs. Braves Picks

Phillies-Braves picks made 10/11/2022 at 7:12 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”