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Paul Skenes Player Prop Predictions, Expert Picks: How to Bet Top Prospect in MLB Debut

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 11, 2024 3:39 PM EDT • 4 min 58 sec read.

Paul Skenes (30) of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during a spring training game, as we offer our best Paul Skenes player props and expert picks for Pirates vs. Cubs on Saturday in Skenes' MLB debut.
Paul Skenes (30) of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium on February 29, 2024 in Sarasota, Fla. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images via AFP.

MLB's top pitching prospect is set to make his debut on Saturday, as we offer our best Paul Skenes player props and expert picks for Cubs vs. Pirates based on the best MLB odds.

The day has finally arrived: Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball, is set to make his MLB debut on Saturday as the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-22) host the Chicago Cubs (23-16) at PNC Park. Skenes' first pitch is expected to be around 4:05 p.m. ET and can be seen on MLB Network and MLB.TV.

Our best sports betting sites are expecting a strong debut from Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft who has torn up the minor leagues. He enters Saturday ranked as the top pitching prospect across virtually every publication ahead of the most anticipated debut by any pitcher since Gerrit Cole started for these very Pirates in 2013.

Here's a look at Paul Skenes' prospect profile, along with our best Paul Skenes player props and MLB picks for Cubs vs. Pirates (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Paul Skenes prospect profile

If you aren't familiar with Skenes, you're in for a treat as the 6-6, 235-pound righty - who ranks as the No. 3 overall prospect at MLB.com and the No. 6 prospect at Baseball America - makes his big-league debut on Saturday.

The former LSU star tore up collegiate hitters with a dominant fastball and dizzying slider that too often left batters looking silly at the plate. He kept it up in the minor leagues, striking out 14.8 batters per nine with a sterling 0.99 ERA in 27.1 innings at the Triple-A level.

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For Skenes, it all starts with that fastball, which has averaged 99.9 MPH across seven starts in 2024 and touches 102 MPH with 15 inches of horizontal movement. His power slider - which could be classified as a "sweeper" - runs in the high 80s and serves as a brutal off-speed complement to that blistering heater.

While he relied almost exclusively on those pitches at LSU, Skenes has expanded his arsenal since Pittsburgh drafted him in July, mixing in a sinker / splitter and a changeup that could help him get through the order in the majors. He still hasn't thrown more than 75 pitches in a game, and he hadn't topped 65 pitches until April 24.

That's all part of the plan for the 21-year-old Skenes, whom the Pirates have been cautious with even as he tears up the minor leagues. He finally forced their hand this month, and the Cubs have the honor of seeing whether his stuff is suited for the big leagues on Saturday.

Paul Skenes player props for Saturday

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Paul Skenes predictions, expert picks for MLB debut

Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs allowed ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my single-favorite bet on the Pirates' top prospect ahead of Saturday's debut - and it's not just because of Skenes' excellence on the mound.

Sure, the flamethrowing righty has allowed just three earned runs in seven starts at Triple-A, surrendering one home run in 27.1 innings with nearly three times as many strikeouts (45) as hits allowed (17). Clearly, the stuff is legit.

But he's also gone six innings just once as a professional, and I don't see the Pirates changing course on their cautious developmental plan. It feels like Skenes could see a shorter debut than many expect - which would be ideal for his Unders across the board.

These +115 odds imply a 46.5% chance that he allows fewer than two runs on Saturday, which he's done in six of seven starts this year, and returns a $11.50 profit on a $10 wager per our odds converter. That sounds like good value to me.

Best odds: +115 via bet365

Paul Skenes Under 1.5 walks allowed ⭐⭐⭐

While the strikeouts are the headliner, Skenes' command has also been stellar in the minor leagues. He's walked just 7.6% of the batters he's faced in Triple-A this season, and Baseball America offers a 60 grade on his control - a solid mark for someone with his raw stuff.

While the Cubs rank fifth in walk rate (9.6%), they also feature the seventh-highest swing rate (48.3%) and rank league average in chase rate (28.1%). They drew just two free passes Friday against fellow Pirates rookie stud Jared Jones, which came in six innings of work for the 22-year-old.

I'd expect Skenes to have similar fortune on Saturday, especially if Pittsburgh is judicious with his pitch count. These +110 odds would net an $11 profit on a $10 bet with an implied probability of 47.6%.

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM

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Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

While Skenes has the stuff to cash this bet, I'm much less bullish on it because of the likelihood of a short start. But let's be real: I know most people want to bet the Over on Skenes' strikeout total, and if you're among them, you should absolutely place that bet at Caesars.

Nearly all of our best sportsbooks are offering this bet at +110 odds, but Caesars is hanging +126 odds on Skenes to strike out seven batters, which he's done in four of his last five starts despite limited pitch counts. Those odds return a nice $12.60 profit on a $10 wager - nearly 15% better than if you bet +110 elsewhere.

Best odds: +126 via Caesars

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Paul Skenes 6+ strikouts and Pirates win ⭐⭐

This is another "bet for the people," if you will. While I'm not making this wager myself, it's worth highlighting one of the best sportsbook promos ahead of Skenes' debut.

FanDuel is dealing this exact bet at +160 odds, while other books are offering roughly +200 odds on Skenes being credited with a win. That would require him to pitch five-plus innings and leave the game with a lead ... and for the Pirates to hold that lead through the ninth. If they fall behind and come back, you still lose.

Instead, you can bet on Skenes to record six strikeouts - which is priced at -170 at DraftKings with a roughly 63% implied probability - and Pittsburgh to win outright (-110) for a combined +225 price at bet365.

If nothing else, this is a fun way to root for a solid debut for the 21-year-old, as even a $5 bet would return a $11.25 profit if it hits.

Best odds: +225 via bet365

Cubs vs. Pirates game info & odds

  • When: Saturday, May 11
  • First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Where: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
  • How to watch: Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network, MLB.TV
  • Favorite: Pirates (-110 via BetMGM)

Paul Skenes player props made Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.