Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 5

Our Nationals vs. Cubs prediction is eyeing a win for Javier Assad, and the Under hitting during a low-scoring affair.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 5, 2025 9:56 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Pictured: Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad throws a pitch as we look at our Nationals vs. Cubs prediction. Photo by Rafael Suanes / Imagn.

With Wrigley Field continuing to honor the old tradition of hosting afternoon weekday games, Friday’s Major League Baseball action gets underway early with the Chicago Cubs opening a series against the Washington Nationals, which I break down with my Nationals vs. Cubs prediction as part of our MLB picks.

The Cubs are the -230 moneyline home betting favorite. But those steep odds lead to me passing on taking a side, with my Nationals vs. Cubs best bet instead finding more value on the game’s total of 10.5 runs.

First pitch from the iconic Wrigley Field is set for 2:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Because I expect Chicago to jump out to an early lead, I've found an appealing player prop wager at +170 odds.

⚾ Nationals vs. Cubs expert picks & predictions

MLB expert picks made Friday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Cubs (-225 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Cubs -1.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📝 Nationals vs. Cubs preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 10.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Usatsi 26916647 168410955 Lowres — Pictured: Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker celebrates as we look at our Nationals vs. Cubs prediction. Photo by Jonathan Hui / Imagn.

The Nationals are not worthy of a look as a moneyline underdog, even though they're coming off a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins. That was Washington’s first sweep in its last 30 series of three games or longer. Instead, I'm looking to the Under as my Nationals vs. Cubs best bet given the recent success of Washington's pitching staff.

The Nationals allowed just seven runs during their three-game sweep of the Marlins. They've held opponents to four runs or fewer eight times in the last 14 games, and their 4.69 ERA across that span is a vast improvement from the team's season-long 5.28 ERA, which ranks better than only the Colorado Rockies.

This wager aims to buck the trend of the Over being 13-5-1 in Washington’s 19 games following an off day. But Chicago is profitable to the Under in that split (cashes 55% of the time), and the club is hitting the Under at a 58.2% rate in the 60 games as the home favorite.

While all of the best MLB betting sites offer a total of 10.5 runs, the implied probability for the Under to cash is as high as 54.95% based on FanDuel’s -122 odds. That makes BetMGM one of the best shops to lay this bet down at right now, as a $10 winning wager through its -115 odds would net $8.70 in profit.

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💰 Best Nationals vs. Cubs player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Javier Assad to record the win (+170) ⭐⭐⭐

Cubs righty Javier Assad has won just one of his four starts this year. But he's made back-to-back quality starts while pitching to a 3.00 ERA since being stretched out to six innings over his last two outings. I expect Chicago to jump out to an early lead, which makes this wager my best Nationals vs. Cubs player prop bet.

While we highlighted Washington’s improving 4.69 ERA since Aug. 20, the breakdown of that number is telling. Nationals starters have pitched to a 7.51 ERA in that span, the second-worst in the majors. Meanwhile, Nationals relievers have logged an MLB-best 1.82 ERA and have been outstanding in the later innings.

If all that holds, it shouldn’t matter much what Washington’s bullpen does in the second half of the game if Chicago jumps out fast. After all, Chicago’s -210 first five innings moneyline odds are practically the same as its price for the full game.

DraftKings and bet365 are two of the only best sports betting sites offering this prop, and those books share the same +170 odds and 37.04% implied probability. If Assad records the win, a $10 winning wager would return $17 in profit.

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📊 Nationals vs. Cubs odds: Sept. 5

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Nationals vs. Cubs betting odds analysis

The Cubs opened as -225 moneyline favorites, but only BetMGM remains at that price, as Chicago’s odds have ballooned as high as -240. The total has also ticked up from an opening number of 9.5 to 10.5, with the Under juiced anywhere from -115 to -122 across the shops offering the best sportsbook promos.

🔢 Nationals vs. Cubs stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Nationals (56-83)	Statistic (per game)	Cubs (80-60)
4.23	Runs	4.91
8.14	Hits	8.47
.243	AVG	.249
.386	SLG	.427
.694	OPS	.746
5.15	ERA	3.82
7.90	K/9	7.66
3.39	BB/9	2.60
1.29	HR/9	1.24

🚑 Nationals vs. Cubs injuries

📺 Nationals vs. Cubs game info

When: Friday, Sept. 5
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
How to watch: Apple TV+

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Nationals vs. Cubs FAQs

Who is favored to win Nationals vs. Cubs?

The Cubs are the -230 betting favorite to beat the Nationals at home on Monday.

What is the run line for Nationals vs. Cubs?

Washington’s +1.5 odds are at -106 on the high end of the market, while Chicago’s -1.5 odds range from -115 to -125.

What is the Over/Under for Nationals vs. Cubs?

The best sports betting apps have the O/U set at 10.5 runs, and it's juiced to -105 for the Over and -115 for the Under.

What are the best bets for Nationals vs. Cubs?

My Nationals vs. Cubs best bets back the Under to cash, with Cubs righty Javier Assad recording the win.

When is the Nationals vs. Cubs game?

The Nationals vs. Cubs first pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET this afternoon, airing on Apple TV+.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”