Nationals vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 22
The Washington Nationals face the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on MLB Network (7:15 p.m. ET) today. My Nationals vs. Braves prediction backs a red-hot Atlanta offense to cover the run line, as it did in each of its last 13 road games.
The Braves are the massive -250 moneyline betting favorite, which is why my MLB picks are looking to the run line for better value. I am all-in on Atlanta, and my Nationals vs. Braves best player prop bet complements my two Atlanta picks in the best home run predictions.
⚾ Nationals vs. Braves prediction
MLB expert picks for Monday odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Braves (-250 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Braves -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Nationals vs. Braves preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🅰️ Braves -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Braves enter this series opener amid an eight-game winning streak, thanks to a red-hot offense that averaged more than seven runs per game during that span.
However, I cannot trust Washington’s offense to keep up, which is why Atlanta’s run line is my Nationals vs. Braves best bet.
In 10 of southpaw Chris Sale’s last 13 starts, which date back to before his IL stint, the combined total for both teams was six runs or fewer.
But Atlanta is 4-2 in his last six starts, including a 5-0 victory over the Nationals in his last start, where he pitched eight scoreless innings while allowing three hits.
Sale was absolutely dominant in that outing despite receiving a no-decision. He struck out nine batters for the fourth consecutive start, while inducing 14 ground-ball outs, and recording a CSW% of 29% or better on three of his four primary pitches.
For as hot as Atlanta’s offense has been, it still entered the weekend ranked 29th in BABIP and 26th in OPS over the last month. The Braves are in their better hitting split against Nationals southpaw Mitchell Parker, who they tagged for six earned runs over five innings in an 11-3 win last Monday.
The Nationals are 2-7 in Parker’s last nine starts, with the seven losses coming by an average of 4.4 runs.
Washington has covered the run line in 48.7% of its games, making the 52.38% implied probability that Atlanta will cover through BetMGM’s -110 odds a steal. A $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.
💰 Best Nationals vs. Braves player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Chris Sale to record the win (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Prior to landing on the IL, Sale won back-to-back starts while allowing just one earned run over 15 2/3 innings. In the four starts since his return, it has been nothing but tough luck in the wins department for the southpaw despite his brilliant pitching. I am expecting positive regression today given Atlanta's head-to-head dominance of Washington, making Sale to record the win my best Nationals vs. Braves best bet.
Sale is 0-1 with three no-decisions in four starts since his return, which is unfathomable considering he has recorded 18-plus outs and allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of those starts. MacKenzie Gore and five Nationals relievers matched zeros with Sale in his last outing. But Sale is due for his first career win in his eighth appearance (sixth start) against Washington, after pitching to a 2.56 ERA and 1.011 WHIP against the division rival up to this point.
Washington is one of the four teams Sale has never beaten, but his bad luck should end today with him notching the win. The Braves have covered the run line in eight straight games, which makes these 52.83% implied odds for Sale to earn the victory even more attractive. Through DraftKings' -112 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $8.93 in profits.
💰 Bonus Nationals vs. Braves player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 RBI ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even though I have backed Jurickson Profar and Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit home runs today, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin should still have plenty of RBI opportunities.
Baldwin went 3-for-5 with a home run and four RBI the last time Parker toed the rubber for Washington. While Baldwin did all of that damage against Nationals relievers (he went 0-for-2 against Parker), Washington’s bullpen is just as leaky as its starting rotation, with a league-worst 5.60 ERA among its relievers.
Baldwin’s metrics are off the charts, ranking in the 83rd percentile or better in xSLG, xBA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit percentage. He has an RBI in five consecutive games and 12 RBI over his last six overall.
📊 Nationals vs. Braves odds: Sept. 22
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Nationals vs. Braves betting odds analysis
After opening as the -250 moneyline betting favorite, Atlanta is currently as high as -263. This line should not balloon too high, even with Sale on the mound.
The fact that the Over is juiced as high as -120 suggests some of the best sports betting sites are ready to move off the opening number of 7.0 and on to 7.5. That seems like the most likely destination for this total, given that Atlanta alone has scored six or more runs in seven of its last eight games.
🔢 Nationals vs. Braves stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Nationals (64-92) | Statistic (per game) | Braves (73-83) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25 | Runs | 4.47 |
| 8.12 | Hits | 8.34 |
| .242 | AVG | .245 |
| .386 | SLG | .397 |
| .691 | OPS | .716 |
| 5.22 | ERA | 4.32 |
| 7.83 | K/9 | 8.73 |
| 3.48 | BB/9 | 3.27 |
| 1.28 | HR/9 | 1.21 |
🚑 Nationals vs. Braves injury report
📺 Nationals vs. Braves game info
- When: Monday, Sept. 22
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- How to watch: MLBN
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❓ Nationals vs. Braves FAQs
Who is favored to win Nationals vs. Braves?
The Braves are the -250 betting favorite to beat the Nationals at home on Monday.
What is the run line for Nationals vs. Braves?
Atlanta’s -1.5 odds range from -110 to -118, while Washington’s +1.5 odds are at -110 on the high end of the market.
What is the Over/Under for Nationals vs. Braves?
The O/U is at 7.0 runs at most best sports betting apps, and its juiced to -115 to the Over and -105 to the Under.
What are the best bets for Nationals vs. Braves?
My Nationals vs. Braves best bets back Atlanta to cover the run line (-110) and for Drake Baldwin to drive in at least one run, which I would play to +100 when the odds become available.
When is the Nationals vs. Braves game?
The Nationals vs. Braves first pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET, airing on MLB Network.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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