Mets vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 1

Can the Mets snap a losing skid in Detroit this afternoon?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 1, 2025 10:03 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Mets vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 1 — Pictured: New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor reacts after grounding out. Photo by John Jones-Imagn Images.

Today’s series opener between the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers is one of two games on today’s slate between teams with 73-plus wins, and I break it down with my Mets vs. Tigers prediction as part of our MLB picks.

The Mets are a -120 moneyline road favorite ahead of first pitch from Comerica Park in Detroit at 1:10 p.m. ET (MLBN). But I feel that line is disrespectful to how good the Tigers have been against left-handed pitching this year. In spite of expecting Detroit to win outright, I am still backing a Mets slugger who has been a key cog in the team’s recent offensive success.

⚾ Mets vs. Tigers expert picks & predictions

MLB expert picks made Monday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Tigers (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Tigers +1.5 (-168 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Mets vs. Tigers preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐯 Tigers ML (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Mets have lost three of their last four road series and won just two of the seven interleague road series they played in the first half of the season. Several of those series were against teams not currently in playoff contention, and life gets much more difficult when facing a Detroit squad that is the only American League team to reach the 80-win plateau thus far.

My Mets vs. Tigers prediction is made more confidently knowing that New York is just 2-7 in Sean Manaea’s nine starts this season. Though it won the last time he toed the rubber, the southpaw failed to complete five innings, and he now faces the Tigers who are one of four MLB teams eight games or more over .500 against left-handed starting pitchers.

Detroit has an MLB-leading team .365 BABIP in home games against southpaws since the start of July, and also leads the league in ISO, OPS, and wRC+ in that split.

I am jumping on Detroit at plus-money odds before the public follows suit after the Tigers’ recorded their 15th shutout win of the season yesterday (tied for second-most in MLB). This 50/50 implied probability would return exactly the amount of my $10 winning wager back in profits.

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💰 Best Mets vs. Tigers player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+625) ⭐⭐

Over the weekend, Francisco Lindor belted his ninth leadoff home run this season, which tied him with Zach Neto for the second-most in the majors (and tied his own single-season career high).

Lindor’s 18 three-hit games are also the second-most in the majors (Trea Turner, 19), but I am opting for the leadoff man’s +625 home run odds instead of his +220 odds to turn in a multi-hit game to add to my home run predictions today.

The Mets have recorded 11 games of four or more home runs this season, which is tied for the second-most in franchise history. The team had six such games in August alone, and Lindor’s six home runs in August were tied for his most in any month this season.

Lindor is in his much better hitting split facing right-hander Charlie Morton, as he has a .850 OPS and 20 home runs against righties compared to a .666 OPS and six home runs against lefties. Two of Lindor’s seven career hits against Morton have also left the yard, so he should have a better than 13.79% implied probability to homer today.

If Lindor does clear the fence, a $10 winning wager would net $62.50 in profits.

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📊 Mets vs. Tigers odds: Sept. 1

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Mets vs. Tigers betting odds analysis

This game opened as a virtual pick ’em with each team assigned -110 moneyline odds. But there has been some interesting reverse line movement thus far, with the Mets now at -120 despite only receiving 36% of the wagers. That suggests sharp action is behind the road favorites, and it would take more lopsided action on Detroit for the line to head back to its original number.

🔢 Mets vs. Tigers stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Mets (73-64)	Statistic (per game)	Tigers (80-58)
4.74	Runs	4.79
8.41	Hits	8.40
.250	AVG	.250
.429	SLG	.421
.757	OPS	.739
3.80	ERA	3.75
8.72	K/9	8.63
3.52	BB/9	2.90
0.89	HR/9	1.12

🚑 Mets vs. Tigers injuries

📺 Mets vs. Tigers game info

When: Monday, Sept. 1
First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
Where: Comerica Park (Detroit)
How to watch: MLB Network

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Mets vs. Tigers FAQs

Who is favored to win Mets vs. Tigers?

The Mets are the -120 betting favorite to beat the Tigers on the road on Monday.

What is the run line for Mets vs. Tigers?

New York’s -1.5 odds are at +145 on the high end of the market, while Detroit’s +1.5 odds range from -169 to -175.

What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Tigers?

The top sports betting sites have the O/U set at 8.5 runs, juiced to -120 to the Over and +100 to the Under.

What are the best bets for Mets vs. Tigers?

My Mets vs. Tigers best bets back Detroit to win, with Francisco Lindor hitting a home run.

When is the Mets vs. Tigers game?

The Mets vs. Tigers first pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET this afternoon, airing on MLBN.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”