Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Player Props & Odds: Expert Picks for June 21

Two of the NL East's top teams clash on Saturday in the second game of a three-game set, will the Phillies make it two-for two?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 21, 2025 12:13 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction & Player Props: Best MLB Expert Picks for June 21 — Pictured: New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto avoids a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Photo by Kyle Ross via Imagn Images.

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are separated by just one game as the top two teams in the NL East as they meet again in the middle game of a three-game series tonight. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX).

Our Mets vs. Phillies prediction and player props finds value with the road underdogs, and expects slugger Juan Soto to lead the charge offensively.

💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies predictions & player props tonight

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✅ Mets to win (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Mick Abel Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾️ Mets to win ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New York enters this game amid a season-long seven-game losing streak, and last night’s 10-2 loss in the series opener snapped a five-game winning streak for the Mets over the Phillies.

The Mets are amid their first losing streak of six or more games since August 2023. They have been outscored 51-16 over that span, and entered the series opener with a .216 average with runners in scoring position this season (second-worst in the majors)

The Phillies have now won nine of 11 games, and the momentum is clearly on their side. But I do not expect rookie Mick Abel to win a game of this magnitude, especially since the Phillies are 2-2 in his four starts, beating the Miami Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates and losing to the only two winning teams he faced, the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays.

I will not overreact to last night’s loss, as the starting pitching matchup was clearly in Philadelphia’s favor with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. Griffin Canning is the more reliable pitcher in this matchup, and I predict New York will beat Philadelphia by a final score of Mets 6, Phillies 4.

✅ Best odds: Mets ML (+100 via FanDuel)

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🤖 Mets vs. Phillies AI score prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 3

(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI not specifically designed for predicting sporting events)

🖥️ AI predictions for Mets vs. Phillies

AI says the projected final score is Phillies 5, Mets 3.

Win probability: Mets 46% | Phillies 54%
Projected total runs: 8
Key takeaways:

Recent Form & Momentum: New York dropped six straight entering the series, while Philadelphia had surged, going 8–2 in its prior 10 games.
Offensive Edge: Both teams average around 4.6 runs/game, but the Phillies' lineup (Schwarber, Turner, etc.) is clicking at home versus a slumping Mets offense.
Weather & Ballpark Context: With temps reaching the 90s, Citizens Bank Park becomes more hitter-friendly - mirroring the projected run total and favoring Phillies bats.

🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Philadelphia covering the spread (-1.5) and a total of Under 9.5 runs.

1️⃣ Mets vs. Phillies first-inning prediction: NRFI (+110 via BetMGM)

The NRFI is 8-1 in Philadelphia’s last nine games against divisional opponents. I am backing this trend yet again through BetMGM’s generous plus-money odds, especially since It cashed in yesterday’s series opener despite the game finishing with 12 total runs scored.

🔥 Best Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

All Mets hitters are facing Abel for the first time, and there are not many discernible differences in how he has fared against right-handed and left-handed batters so far, except in OPS. Lefties have an OPS 80 points higher against Abel, and I expect Soto to continue his hot month of June.

Soto has slashed .300/.481/.600 so far this month, and should likely have more than one RBI in his last six games. He went just 1-for-12 against Philadelphia in the first series against the Phillies, and ended that three-game span with a .233 batting average. Soto’s average has risen 17 points since June 5, and I expect him to play a big part in the team’s offensive breakout tonight.

The best payout for this wager is found at FanDuel, which trumps the +116 odds offered at some of our other best sports betting sites.

✅ Best odds: +130 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $13)

🔥 Best Mick Abel Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since striking out nine batters in his season debut, Abel has not topped three strikeouts in any of the last three.

Thus, I am not concerned that opponents are hitting .217 off his four-seam fastball, a pitch he throws more than 42% of the time, or that he has generated whiffs more than 40% of the time he throws his curveball.

Abel has not yet thrown 90-plus pitches in an MLB start and has been removed after 78 or fewer pitches twice. With the team seemingly being cautious with its youngster, the -135 odds at DraftKings for this wager are justified. They are also a great value, considering the implied probability for the Under is as high as 59.68% based on FanDuel’s -148 odds.

✅ Best odds: -135 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $7.41)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”