Mets vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 25
My Mets vs. Cubs prediction expects plenty of offense as both clubs vie for a series victory after splitting the first two games at Wrigley Field.
The Mets are the -115 moneyline betting favorite ahead of first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network).
While I think New York wins this game in its quest to secure the final NL playoff spot, I'm backing Over 7.5 runs instead with my MLB picks after two high-scoring games between these clubs.
⚾ Mets vs. Cubs prediction
MLB odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Mets ML (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Mets -1.5 (+154 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Mets vs. Cubs preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 7.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After cashing an Over ticket in last night’s 10-3 Cubs victory, I’m betting on more runs in Thursday’s finale. This -110 price tag provides a $9.09 profit on a $10 wager.
The logic for this Mets vs. Cubs prediction is similar to the one I made in yesterday’s preview: the bullpens could be gassed.
After 12 relievers were used in Tuesday’s opener, the Mets called on the bullpen four times after their starter lasted four innings. The Cubs used two relievers, which included Aaron Civale recording the final nine outs for a three-inning save.
Given the explosiveness of both lineups, I expect that to be a problem in the finale. The Mets rank fourth in wRC+, while the Cubs are eighth.
I’d play this Over at -120 or better.
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💰 Best Mets vs. Cubs player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBI (+145) ⭐⭐⭐
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso ranks third in the majors with 123 RBI, trailing Kyle Schwarber by nine for the league lead. It’s a market that I have my eye on as someone who invested in Schwarber to be the RBI leader during the preseason.
I don’t know if Alonso can catch him in the final weekend, but this is a reasonable price tag to record at least one. Ballpark Pal’s model projects 0.48 RBI, but this +145 value suggests an implied probability of 40.82%.
A $10 wager nets a $14.50 profit for this Mets vs. Cubs player prop
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📊 Mets vs. Cubs odds: Sept. 25
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Mets vs. Cubs betting odds analysis
This game started as a pick 'em, but it has moved in the Mets’ favor overnight despite receiving only 44% of the wagers. The total opened at 7.5, with 55% of the wagers on the Over.
I’m guessing that New York will be the more popular side, considering its motivation to secure a postseason berth. The Over should also receive more action after 29 total runs were scored in the first two games of this series.
🔢 Mets vs. Cubs stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Mets (81-77) | Statistic (per game) | Cubs (89-69) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.75 | Runs | 4.85 |
| 8.4 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .250 | AVG | .249 |
| .429 | SLG | .426 |
| .756 | OPS | .746 |
| 4.03 | ERA | 3.81 |
| 8.7 | K/9 | 7.9 |
| 3.6 | BB/9 | 2.6 |
| 0.9 | HR/9 | 1.3 |
🚑 Mets vs. Cubs injury report
📺 Mets vs. Cubs game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 25
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- How to watch: MLB Network
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
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❓ Mets vs. Cubs FAQs
Who is favored to win Mets vs. Cubs?
The Mets are -115 moneyline betting favorites to defeat the Cubs on Thursday.
What is the run line for Mets vs. Cubs?
New York is a 1.5 run line favorite against Chicago.
What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Cubs?
The total for Thursday’s Mets-Cubs matchup is 7.5.
What are the best bets for Mets vs. Cubs?
I’m backing the Over (7.5) and Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBI (+145) as my best bets for Mets vs. Cubs.
When is the Mets vs. Cubs game?
First pitch for Mets vs. Cubs is 7:40 p.m. ET on Thursday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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