⚾ Italy vs. Puerto Rico Predictions & Odds: WBC 2026 Betting Picks for Saturday
Unless the best sports betting sites know something I don't and Francisco Lindor is walking through that door, I have no idea how or why Puerto Rico is trading as a -120 betting favorite for its showdown against Italy. But, let's punish the books for this mistake, and Italy vs. Puerto Rico predictions tell you exactly how we're going to do it.
Italy just got finished running through Mexico, while Puerto Rico lost a true home game to Canada. And yet, here we are, with Puerto Rico favored ahead of Saturday's 3 p.m. ET first pitch.
The favorites will send veteran Seth Lugo to the mound, while Samuel Aldegheri will take the hill for the Italians. We're already seeing the majority of betting action on the underdogs, and they've moved from plus money, so make sure you act quickly before they're suddenly favored in this quarterfinal showdown.
⚾ Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC predictions: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for Saturday's Italy vs. Puerto Rico matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
| Pick | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy moneyline | -105 via DraftKings | 1 unit -> 1.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 8.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1 unit -> 1.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ hits | +240 via DraftKings | 0.67 unit -> 2.28u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dominic Canzone home run | +500 via FanDuel | 0.33 units -> 1.98u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 5.12 units
💰 Italy vs. Puerto Rico best bet
Italy moneyline (-105)
Let's break this down quickly. Italy went perfect in pool play, beating USA before destroying Mexico, a team that's infinitely more talented than Puerto Rico. It has since remained in Houston, resting, waiting for its opponent to arrive.
That opponent played four true home games in pool play and lost its last one to Canada with a chance to clinch Pool A. It's since traveled from San Juan to Houston, where it will be greeted by the team with the most momentum in the entire tournament.
These odds are just wrong. Bet them accordingly.
🔥 Best Italy vs. Puerto Rico player prop
Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ hits (+240)
The Pasquatch went absolutely nuclear against Mexico, launching three homers during the 9-1 win. On Saturday, he faces his Kansas City Royals teammate Seth Lugo, who allowed an abysmal .272 average against lefties last season.
Additionally, for his part, Pasquantino crushed right-handers, and I think he rides his wave of momentum from the final game of pool play directly into this showdown. I also like his home run odds, and if Dominic Canzone sits like he did against Mexico, I'd fire up Vinnie at +500.
💣 Italy vs. Puerto Rico home run prediction
Dominic Canzone home run (+500)
I bet on Canzone to hit a homer against Mexico but he sat. All of the reasons I gave there apply to this game, with the added fact that Lugo gave up homers for fun last season.
Canzone is hitting just .154 during the tournament, but one of those two hits was a homer.
I featured Canzone as one of my 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season (along with Pasquantino, looks like I am the OG Italy believer), and he has a chance to start that breakout early. Canzone crushes the ball, and he has six hard-hit balls in the tournament thus far.
🚀 Italy vs. Puerto Rico same-game parlay
I'm parlaying the Italy moneyline with the Over and a couple of player props for our Italy vs. Puerto Rico SGP at DraftKings. The odds are relatively long, so be sure to limit your wager size.
💵 Best Italy vs. Puerto Rico parlay bet
- Italy ML (-105)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ hit (-240)
- Jakob Marsee 1+ hit (-200)
Best odds: +470 via DraftKings (0.25u -> 1.43u)
💵 My betting record for the WBC
All baseball picks have been tracked since the start of the World Baseball Classic on March 4
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-27 | +18.03 units ✅ | 39.7% ✅ |
| Spread | 8-1 | +5.85 units ✅ | 65% ✅ |
| Player props | 9-18 | +0.61 units ✅ | 4.2% ✅ |
⚖️ How I'm betting Italy vs. Puerto Rico
I got a bit looser with my bankroll management for South Korea-Dominican Republic and USA-Canada, but I'm tightening things back up here. I like Italy to win and I like the Over, but I'm a little unsure about everything else.
Therefore, I'd bet this game essentially as I laid it out up top, or perhaps choose between the moneyline or Over on the total if I wanted to be slightly more conservative. When it comes to the player props, I'm definitely not going over one unit combined.
📊 Italy vs. Puerto Rico odds & analysis
Here are the World Baseball Classic odds for Italy vs. Puerto Rico on Saturday via DraftKings:
| Moneyline | Total | Run line |
|---|---|---|
| Puerto Rico (-120) | Over 8.5 (-110) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Italy (-105) | Under 8.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-165) |
The odds at DraftKings for Puerto Rico to win outright are -120, so you can definitely bet either side of the moneyline. At DraftKings, bettors siding more with the underdogs in what's widely expected to be a higher-scoring game. We're seeing 58% of the moneyline bets being placed on the underdogs, 85% of the bets for the total on the Over, and 60% of the run line bets on Italy to cover +1.5. As of 3 p.m. ET, bettors are a bit split.
🆚 Italy vs. Puerto Rico starting pitchers & projected lineups
Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for Saturday's Italy vs. Puerto Rico matchup:
| Position | Italy | Puerto Rico |
|---|---|---|
| Starting pitcher | Samuel Aldegheri | Seth Lugo |
| C | J.J. D'Orazio | Christian Vazquez |
| 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | Emmanuel Rivera |
| 2B | Jon Berti | Willi Castro |
| SS | Sam Antonacci | Darell Hernaiz |
| 3B | Zach Dezenzo | Nolan Arenado |
| LF | Dante Nori | Carlos Cortes |
| CF | Jakob Marsee | Heliot Ramos |
| RF | Jac Caglianone | Bryan Torres |
| DH | Dominic Canzone | Eddie Rosario |
Key players to watch
Italy - Jon Berti: Pasquantino got all the shine, but Berti was lowkey a monster against Mexico, too. And this is a guy who stole 41 bases once upon a time. He could torment Puerto Rico on the basepaths in this one.
Puerto Rico - Heliot Ramos: Ramos has been brutal during the WBC, but he should be one of, if not the best player for this team. If he goes, so, too, could Puerto Rico.
📺 How to watch Italy vs. Puerto Rico
- When: Saturday, March 14
- First pitch: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Daikin Park (Houston, Texas)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo
❓ Italy vs. Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic FAQ
Here's what people are asking about Italy vs. Puerto Rico on Saturday:
Who is the favorite in Italy vs. Puerto Rico?
Puerto Rico is the favorite to win, with odds hovering around -120.
What time is the Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC game?
This game will start at 3 p.m. ET.
Who are the starting pitchers for Italy vs. Puerto Rico?
Italy will send Samuel Aldegheri to the mound, while Puerto Rico will go with Seth Lugo.
Where can I watch the Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC game?
You can watch this game on FS1 or stream it on Fubo.
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