Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Picks & Prop Bets for Friday

The American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners was the only AL series to go to a deciding fifth game, so we go in depth with this winner-take-all matchup for my best home run predictions today. 

The Mariners entered the playoffs tied with the New York Yankees for the highest percentage of their runs (50%) being scored via the home run. That is a big part of my analysis, with one of their sluggers as the centerpiece of my four-pack of home run selections. If you're looking for some non-dinger action, my best MLB player props today feature a four-pack of best bets for tonight's game.

Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodriguez make up my home run MLB picks today. If all of them homer, the four-leg $10 parlay would net over $10,000 in profits.

💰 Best home run predictions today: Oct. 10

MLB home run predictions for Friday; MLB odds subject to change.

• Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Riley Greene, OF, Tigers (+575 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners (+700 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
• Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners (+660 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

💣 Best home run pick today

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⚾  Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners (+700) ⭐⭐

Randy Arozarena and the rest of the Mariners have the unenviable task of facing the AL’s likely Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal, who has pitched to a 1.84 ERA through two postseason starts. But Skubal was vulnerable in Game 1 of this series, allowing two solo home runs to Jorge Polanco, which should raise the confidence levels of Seattle’s right-handed hitters.

I love Arozarena’s experience heading into this winner-take-all game, as he has 11 home runs in 37 career postseason games. The left fielder has not homered in his last eight playoff games, but is still a slugger who can get hot in bunches, like when he was one of five players in history to homer in three consecutive playoff games against the Yankees in 2020.

Arozarena belted a career-high 27 home runs this year, and his 50.7% hard-hit rate smashed his previous career-high of 48.4%.  His best home run implied odds are 14.29% through FanDuel’s +600 odds. But the best return on a winning $10 wager is through BetMGM’s +700 odds, which would net $70 in profits if he homers.

🚀 Best home run parlay today

Use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any MLB parlay.