⚾ MLB Home Run Leader Odds & Picks 2026: Buying Two Big Lefties, Veteran in New Home

MLB player futures don't have to be limited to the major awards markets. You can use those edges you find there and apply them to other bets, like we are with our MLB home run leader odds and picks 2026.

We're targeting three players with exciting power profiles to lead MLB in home runs this season, with two priced as contenders and one serving as a serious long shot by the odds. Find out why I'm fading the four favorites, too!

🔢 MLB home run leader odds 2026

Here are the live MLB home run leader odds from our best sports betting sites to help with your MLB picks.

💰 MLB home run leader odds and picks: My favorite bets

😤 Not worried about Nick Kurtz sophomore slump (+1200)

Kurtz is exactly the type of player I'm talking about below when I refer to someone with the same profile as Kyle Schwarber or Cal Raleigh but at better odds. By fading those two and opting instead to bet on Kurtz, we're getting an additional $2 of profit per every $10 we wager.

Among players with at least 300 plate appearances last season, Kurtz led the league in home run to fly ball ratio. He hit a home run every 13.5 plate appearances, and that was with him slumping pretty aggressively upon initially being called up - he hit only five long balls across his first 108 plate appearances.

The sophomore first baseman is set to play his home games at Sutter Health Park, which was one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball last year. Speaking of Kurtz being in his second year, I'm not especially worried about a sophomore slump because we already saw him adjust to his early growing pains last season. 

He struggled, made the adjustments, and became one of the best hitters in baseball. Kurtz's batted-ball data was simply absurd, and his ability to destroy the baseball is the main reason why I believe he's one of 10 MLB players to watch this season.

💣 Pete Alonso should thrive in new home (+1300)

I think the Polar Bear is being very much slept-on in this market. Yes, Alonso hit only 38 home runs last season, but it was his best season by batted-ball data - yes, even better than his 2019 rookie season in which he launched 53 homers. 

Alonso was more or less punished by his ballpark last year, as Citi Field was essentially neutral in terms of home runs. Meanwhile, Camden Yards was the second-most homer-friendly stadium in the majors.

New home aside, Alonso already appeared due for some positive regression in the home run department, as he hit 38 home runs despite 40.6 expected home runs. He also had one of the highest no-doubter percentages in the league. And it isn't just Camden Yards that helps Alonso this season.

Rogers Centre (home of the Blue Jays) was the third-most homer-friendly stadium last year, George M. Steinbrenner Field (home of the Rays) was the seventh-most, and Yankee Stadium was the 10th-most.

I know this market is based mostly on what players did last year, and the fact that Alonso is still trading at relatively short odds (he's the sixth-biggest favorite) shows the best sports betting apps know what we know - they always do. However, I still can't help but feel like we're getting a bit of a bargain. I think Alonso should be priced closer to +900.

🎯 Vinnie Pasquantino gets ballpark upgrade (+10000)

The Pasquatch got off to a brutally slow start to the 2025 season. He swatted only 15 home runs in 96 first-half games, but he more than made up for that with 17 long balls in 64 second-half contests (or one home run per 16.3 plate appearances).

That second-half surge came despite the fact that Pasquantino plays his home games at Kauffman Stadium, which served as the fourth-least homer-friendly ballpark in baseball last season. However, the stadium is undergoing changes this offseason, with the left- and right-field walls moving in nine feet, and the wall height going from 10 feet to 8.5 feet in most spots.

Based on data collected by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs, Pasquantino would have hit approximately three more home runs at Kauffman Stadium last season based on his balls hit at home under these new dimensions. That may not sound like a ton, but that already puts him at 35 homers during a season in which he still struggled to find consistency.

However, Pasquantino's confidence should be sky-high entering this season with a Royals team that will certainly be competing for the AL Central crown. They have all the necessary pieces, and that's exactly why I'm so high on them as one of my picks by the latest MLB playoff odds.

As you can see, my wager on Pasquantino is smaller than those on Kurtz and Alonso (0.20 units compared to 0.40), because he's a long shot for a reason. But I think he's quite easily the best value bet on the board.

❌ MLB home run leader odds and picks: Leaving heavy favorites alone

Judge, Ohtani, Schwarber, Raleigh don't interest me

I have no problem going chalk in certain MLB futures markets, but this is one where I'm going to avoid doing so. At DraftKings, Aaron Judge (+350), Shohei Ohtani (+400), Kyle Schwarber (+800), and Cal Raleigh (+900) are the four biggest favorites, and I see red flags with each of them.

For Judge, it's the combination of his ultra-short odds, his elbow injury last season, and the fact that it's always possible we finally see teams pitching more carefully to baseball's best hitter. 

For Ohtani, I'm worried that we could see somewhat of a drop-off in his production at the plate if he pitches upward of 120 innings. He plays in much more hitter-friendly ballpark now, but Ohtani was more of a 40-home run guy when he was serving as a full-time pitcher with the Angels. Now, that wasn't the case last year, as he hit homers at an even higher rate once he started pitching. But he also wasn't getting a full starter's workload with regularity.

As far as Schwarber and Raleigh go, I just think there are other hitters with similar profiles who are being offered at better odds because they didn't finish No. 1 and 2 in home runs last season. The pair of big beefy boys are being priced this short because of what they did last year, and that's fair. I just don't like paying for last year's numbers in a market like this.

📋 MLB home run leader odds and picks: 2025 home run leaders